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Macro Indicators

Khamenei

Fed decision in January?

Fed

Fed decision in January?

$421m Vol.

$13m today

$22m Liq.

1,369

Ends in 8 days

96%

No change

$421m Vol.

$13m today

$22m Liq.

1,369

Ends in 8 days

Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?

Fed

Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?

$217m Vol.

$5m today

$6m Liq.

539

Ends in 12 months

62%

Kevin Warsh

$217m Vol.

$5m today

$6m Liq.

539

Ends in 12 months

Fed decision in March?

Fed

Fed decision in March?

$3m Vol.

$83.1k today

$431k Liq.

418

Ends in about 2 months

79%

No change

$3m Vol.

$83.1k today

$431k Liq.

418

Ends in about 2 months

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?

Fed

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?

$546k Vol.

$65.0k today

$162k Liq.

26

Ends in 4 months

9%

May 14

$546k Vol.

$65.0k today

$162k Liq.

26

Ends in 4 months

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

Fed

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

$3m Vol.

$859k Liq.

29

Ends in 12 months

27%

3 (75 bps)

$3m Vol.

$859k Liq.

29

Ends in 12 months

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

Fed

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

$456k Vol.

$154k Liq.

3

Ends in 12 months

94%

↓ 3.25%

$456k Vol.

$154k Liq.

3

Ends in 12 months

Fed decisions (Dec-Mar)

Fed

Fed decisions (Dec-Mar)

$468k Vol.

$124k Liq.

1

Ends in about 2 months

78%

Cut–Pause–Pause

$468k Vol.

$124k Liq.

1

Ends in about 2 months

What day will Trump announce Fed Chair nominee?

Fed

What day will Trump announce Fed Chair nominee?

$263k Vol.

$22.9k Liq.

4

Ends in 11 days

40%

No announcement by Jan 31

$263k Vol.

$22.9k Liq.

4

Ends in 11 days

Trump announces Fed Chair nominee by...?

Fed

Trump announces Fed Chair nominee by...?

$272k Vol.

$35.4k Liq.

6

Ends in 11 days

99%

June 30, 2026

$272k Vol.

$35.4k Liq.

6

Ends in 11 days

Fed rate cut by...?

Fed

Fed rate cut by...?

$363k Vol.

$116k Liq.

3

Ends in 5 months

80%

June Meeting

$363k Vol.

$116k Liq.

3

Ends in 5 months

Fed decisions (Oct-Jan)

Fed

Fed decisions (Oct-Jan)

$878k Vol.

$146k Liq.

15

Ends in 11 days

96%

Cut–Cut–Pause

$878k Vol.

$146k Liq.

15

Ends in 11 days

US strikes Iran or Trump announces Fed nominee first?

Fed

US strikes Iran or Trump announces Fed nominee first?

$16.7k Vol.

$3.0k Liq.

4

Ends in 12 months

19%

US Strikes Iran

$16.7k Vol.

$3.0k Liq.

4

Ends in 12 months

Fed Decision & Dissent Combo in January?

Fed

Fed Decision & Dissent Combo in January?

$9.2k Vol.

$24.4k Liq.

Ends in 8 days

50%

No change, Dissents: ≥2

$9.2k Vol.

$24.4k Liq.

Ends in 8 days

Will Trump meet with Jerome Powell by...?

Fed

Will Trump meet with Jerome Powell by...?

$21.2k Vol.

$4.1k Liq.

1

Ends in 11 days

2%

January 31

$21.2k Vol.

$4.1k Liq.

1

Ends in 11 days

Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?

Fed

Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?

$112k Vol.

$24.2k Liq.

32

Ends in 5 months

10%

$112k Vol.

$24.2k Liq.

32

Ends in 5 months

Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?

Fed

Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?

$62.0k Vol.

$14.3k Liq.

3

Ends in 12 months

67%

December 31

$62.0k Vol.

$14.3k Liq.

3

Ends in 12 months

Fed decision in April?

Fed

Fed decision in April?

$715k Vol.

$329k Liq.

Ends in 3 months

72%

No change

$715k Vol.

$329k Liq.

Ends in 3 months

Trump drops Powell investigation by February 28?

Fed

Trump drops Powell investigation by February 28?

$13.4k Vol.

$2.9k Liq.

2

Ends in 11 days

30%

$13.4k Vol.

$2.9k Liq.

2

Ends in 11 days

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

Fed

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

$32.3k Vol.

$175k Liq.

Ends in 11 months

31%

3.0%

$32.3k Vol.

$175k Liq.

Ends in 11 months

Will Trump try to Fire Powell by January 31?

Fed

Will Trump try to Fire Powell by January 31?

$82.1k Vol.

$35.2k Liq.

1

Ends in 11 days

1%

$82.1k Vol.

$35.2k Liq.

1

Ends in 11 days

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