Fed Rates predictions & odds

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Treasuries

Fed decision in January?

Fed Rates

Fed decision in January?

$421m Vol.

$13m today

$22m Liq.

1,369

Ends in 8 days

96%

No change

$421m Vol.

$13m today

$22m Liq.

1,369

Ends in 8 days

Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?

Fed Rates

Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?

$217m Vol.

$5m today

$6m Liq.

539

Ends in 12 months

62%

Kevin Warsh

$217m Vol.

$5m today

$6m Liq.

539

Ends in 12 months

Fed decision in March?

Fed Rates

Fed decision in March?

$3m Vol.

$83.1k today

$431k Liq.

418

Ends in about 2 months

79%

No change

$3m Vol.

$83.1k today

$431k Liq.

418

Ends in about 2 months

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?

Fed Rates

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?

$546k Vol.

$65.0k today

$162k Liq.

26

Ends in 4 months

9%

May 14

$546k Vol.

$65.0k today

$162k Liq.

26

Ends in 4 months

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

Fed Rates

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

$3m Vol.

$858k Liq.

29

Ends in 12 months

27%

3 (75 bps)

$3m Vol.

$858k Liq.

29

Ends in 12 months

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

Fed Rates

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

$456k Vol.

$154k Liq.

3

Ends in 12 months

94%

↓ 3.25%

$456k Vol.

$154k Liq.

3

Ends in 12 months

Fed decisions (Dec-Mar)

Fed Rates

Fed decisions (Dec-Mar)

$468k Vol.

$124k Liq.

1

Ends in about 2 months

78%

Cut–Pause–Pause

$468k Vol.

$124k Liq.

1

Ends in about 2 months

Trump announces Fed Chair nominee by...?

Fed Rates

Trump announces Fed Chair nominee by...?

$272k Vol.

$35.7k Liq.

6

Ends in 11 days

99%

June 30, 2026

$272k Vol.

$35.7k Liq.

6

Ends in 11 days

Fed rate cut by...?

Fed Rates

Fed rate cut by...?

$363k Vol.

$117k Liq.

3

Ends in 5 months

80%

June Meeting

$363k Vol.

$117k Liq.

3

Ends in 5 months

Fed decisions (Oct-Jan)

Fed Rates

Fed decisions (Oct-Jan)

$878k Vol.

$146k Liq.

15

Ends in 11 days

96%

Cut–Cut–Pause

$878k Vol.

$146k Liq.

15

Ends in 11 days

Fed Decision & Dissent Combo in January?

Fed Rates

Fed Decision & Dissent Combo in January?

$9.2k Vol.

$24.5k Liq.

Ends in 8 days

50%

No change, Dissents: ≥2

$9.2k Vol.

$24.5k Liq.

Ends in 8 days

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

Fed Rates

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

$30.8k Vol.

$22.2k Liq.

Ends in 12 months

93%

4.3%

$30.8k Vol.

$22.2k Liq.

Ends in 12 months

Will Trump meet with Jerome Powell by...?

Fed Rates

Will Trump meet with Jerome Powell by...?

$21.2k Vol.

$4.1k Liq.

1

Ends in 11 days

2%

January 31

$21.2k Vol.

$4.1k Liq.

1

Ends in 11 days

Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?

Fed Rates

Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?

$112k Vol.

$24.2k Liq.

32

Ends in 5 months

10%

$112k Vol.

$24.2k Liq.

32

Ends in 5 months

Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?

Fed Rates

Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?

$62.0k Vol.

$14.3k Liq.

3

Ends in 12 months

67%

December 31

$62.0k Vol.

$14.3k Liq.

3

Ends in 12 months

Fed decision in April?

Fed Rates

Fed decision in April?

$715k Vol.

$329k Liq.

Ends in 3 months

72%

No change

$715k Vol.

$329k Liq.

Ends in 3 months

Trump drops Powell investigation by February 28?

Fed Rates

Trump drops Powell investigation by February 28?

$13.4k Vol.

$2.9k Liq.

2

Ends in 11 days

30%

$13.4k Vol.

$2.9k Liq.

2

Ends in 11 days

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

Fed Rates

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

$32.3k Vol.

$175k Liq.

Ends in 11 months

31%

3.0%

$32.3k Vol.

$175k Liq.

Ends in 11 months

Will Trump try to Fire Powell by January 31?

Fed Rates

Will Trump try to Fire Powell by January 31?

$82.9k Vol.

$34.2k Liq.

1

Ends in 11 days

1%

$82.9k Vol.

$34.2k Liq.

1

Ends in 11 days

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Fed Rates

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

$3.3k Vol.

$7.5k Liq.

1

Ends in 12 months

76%

3.9%

$3.3k Vol.

$7.5k Liq.

1

Ends in 12 months

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