Politics predictions & odds

·
Fed decision in March?

Politics

Fed

Fed decision in March?

86%

No change

$72m Vol.

$11m today

$3m Liq.

418

Ends in about 1 month

Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?

Politics

Trump

Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?

95%

Kevin Warsh

$414m Vol.

$10m today

$58m Liq.

1,377

Ends in 11 months

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Politics

Elections

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

29%

Gavin Newsom

$608m Vol.

$5m today

$29m Liq.

477

Ends in almost 3 years

US strikes Iran by...?

Politics

Iran

US strikes Iran by...?

50%

June 30

$182m Vol.

$5m today

$636k Liq.

2

Ends in 5 months

Elon Musk # tweets January 30 - February 6, 2026?

Politics

Culture

Elon Musk # tweets January 30 - February 6, 2026?

67%

280-299

$16m Vol.

$4m today

$3m Liq.

Ends in about 2 hours

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Politics

Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

25%

JD Vance

$260m Vol.

$4m today

$18m Liq.

626

Ends in almost 3 years

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Politics

Elections

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

49%

J.D. Vance

$252m Vol.

$3m today

$12m Liq.

240

Ends in almost 3 years

Elon Musk # tweets February 3 - February 10, 2026?

Politics

Culture

Elon Musk # tweets February 3 - February 10, 2026?

20%

260-279

$7m Vol.

$2m today

$2m Liq.

Ends in 4 days

Portugal Presidential Election

Politics

Elections

Portugal Presidential Election

99%

António José Seguro (IND)

$131m Vol.

$1m today

$16m Liq.

1,635

Ends in 2 days

US next strikes Iran on...?

Politics

Iran

US next strikes Iran on...?

73%

No strike by February 28

$8m Vol.

$1m today

$728k Liq.

Ends in 21 days

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Politics

Trump

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

69%

Delcy Rodríguez

$17m Vol.

$820k today

$1m Liq.

154

Ends in 11 months

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?

Politics

Ukraine

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?

9%

$14m Vol.

$683k today

$703k Liq.

20,361

Ends in about 2 months

What will Trump say this week (February 8)?

Politics

Trump

What will Trump say this week (February 8)?

35%

Kamala

$3m Vol.

$650k today

$7.0k Liq.

54

Ends in 1 day

Starmer out by...?

Politics

Uk

Starmer out by...?

64%

December 31, 2026

$2m Vol.

$504k today

$89.9k Liq.

97

Elon Musk # tweets February 5 - February 7, 2026?

Politics

Culture

Elon Musk # tweets February 5 - February 7, 2026?

45%

65-89

$1m Vol.

$493k today

$147k Liq.

Ends in 1 day

US x Iran diplomatic meeting in person by...?

Politics

Iran

US x Iran diplomatic meeting in person by...?

26%

February 13

$1m Vol.

$449k today

$63.3k Liq.

191

Ends in 6 days

Elon Musk # tweets February 6 - February 13, 2026?

Politics

Culture

Elon Musk # tweets February 6 - February 13, 2026?

12%

260-279

$2m Vol.

$434k today

$469k Liq.

Ends in 7 days

Thailand Legislative Election Winner

Politics

Elections

Thailand Legislative Election Winner

68%

People’s Party (PPLE)

$6m Vol.

$425k today

$309k Liq.

171

Ends in 1 day

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026?

Politics

Ukraine

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026?

3%

$2m Vol.

$318k today

$427k Liq.

Ends in 21 days

US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31?

Politics

Iran

US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31?

94%

$1m Vol.

$253k today

$17.1k Liq.

Ends in about 2 months