Politics predictions & odds

·
Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?

Politics

Trump

Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?

97%

Kevin Warsh

$394m Vol.

$11m today

$55m Liq.

1,220

Ends in 11 months

US strikes Iran by...?

Politics

Iran

US strikes Iran by...?

46%

June 30

$167m Vol.

$8m today

$1m Liq.

2

Ends in 5 months

Fed decision in March?

Politics

Fed

Fed decision in March?

91%

No change

$56m Vol.

$5m today

$4m Liq.

418

Ends in about 1 month

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Politics

Elections

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

33%

Gavin Newsom

$594m Vol.

$5m today

$25m Liq.

470

Ends in almost 3 years

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Politics

Elections

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

49%

J.D. Vance

$244m Vol.

$4m today

$12m Liq.

234

Ends in almost 3 years

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Politics

Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

26%

JD Vance

$251m Vol.

$4m today

$18m Liq.

619

Ends in almost 3 years

Elon Musk # tweets February 2 - February 4, 2026?

Politics

Culture

Elon Musk # tweets February 2 - February 4, 2026?

47%

90-114

$3m Vol.

$2m today

$281k Liq.

Ends in about 13 hours

Elon Musk # tweets January 30 - February 6, 2026?

Politics

Culture

Elon Musk # tweets January 30 - February 6, 2026?

27%

320-339

$7m Vol.

$2m today

$2m Liq.

Ends in 3 days

US next strikes Iran on...?

Politics

Iran

US next strikes Iran on...?

77%

No strike by February 28

$5m Vol.

$1m today

$632k Liq.

Ends in 24 days

Elon Musk # tweets February 3 - February 10, 2026?

Politics

Culture

Elon Musk # tweets February 3 - February 10, 2026?

15%

320-339

$4m Vol.

$931k today

$1m Liq.

Ends in 7 days

Next Country US Strikes

Politics

Iran

Next Country US Strikes

100%

Somalia

$2m Vol.

$778k today

$419k Liq.

Ends in 11 months

Elon Musk # tweets February 6 - February 13, 2026?

Politics

Culture

Elon Musk # tweets February 6 - February 13, 2026?

14%

340-359

$704k Vol.

$591k today

$606k Liq.

Ends in 10 days

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Politics

Trump

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

67%

Delcy Rodríguez

$15m Vol.

$400k today

$1m Liq.

148

Ends in 11 months

Next leader out of power before 2027?

Politics

Geopolitics

Next leader out of power before 2027?

91%

Schoof - Netherlands PM

$5m Vol.

$333k today

$306k Liq.

Ends in 11 months

Thailand Legislative Election Winner

Politics

Elections

Thailand Legislative Election Winner

67%

People’s Party (PPLE)

$4m Vol.

$330k today

$210k Liq.

125

Ends in 4 days

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?

Politics

Ukraine

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?

12%

$13m Vol.

$320k today

$759k Liq.

20,361

Ends in about 2 months

Portugal Presidential Election

Politics

Elections

Portugal Presidential Election

99%

António José Seguro (IND)

$129m Vol.

$316k today

$12m Liq.

1,619

Ends in 4 days

Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner

Politics

Elections

Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner

60%

Ken Paxton

$2m Vol.

$308k today

$130k Liq.

Ends in 27 days

US/Israel strikes Iran by...?

Politics

Iran

US/Israel strikes Iran by...?

64%

December 31

$10m Vol.

$290k today

$137k Liq.

318

Ends in 11 days

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?

Politics

Iran

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?

15%

$9m Vol.

$288k today

$396k Liq.

Ends in about 2 months