Politics predictions & odds

·
Fed decision in March?

Politics

Fed

Fed decision in March?

83%

No change

$70m Vol.

$11m today

$3m Liq.

418

Ends in about 1 month

Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?

Politics

Trump

Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?

95%

Kevin Warsh

$413m Vol.

$10m today

$57m Liq.

1,369

Ends in 11 months

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Politics

Elections

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

30%

Gavin Newsom

$607m Vol.

$5m today

$28m Liq.

477

Ends in almost 3 years

US strikes Iran by...?

Politics

Iran

US strikes Iran by...?

52%

June 30

$181m Vol.

$5m today

$641k Liq.

2

Ends in 5 months

Elon Musk # tweets January 30 - February 6, 2026?

Politics

Culture

Elon Musk # tweets January 30 - February 6, 2026?

72%

280-299

$15m Vol.

$4m today

$3m Liq.

Ends in about 4 hours

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Politics

Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

25%

JD Vance

$260m Vol.

$4m today

$17m Liq.

626

Ends in almost 3 years

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Politics

Elections

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

49%

J.D. Vance

$252m Vol.

$3m today

$12m Liq.

239

Ends in almost 3 years

Elon Musk # tweets February 3 - February 10, 2026?

Politics

Culture

Elon Musk # tweets February 3 - February 10, 2026?

15%

300-319

$7m Vol.

$2m today

$2m Liq.

Ends in 4 days

Portugal Presidential Election

Politics

Elections

Portugal Presidential Election

99%

António José Seguro (IND)

$131m Vol.

$1m today

$15m Liq.

1,633

Ends in 2 days

US next strikes Iran on...?

Politics

Iran

US next strikes Iran on...?

71%

No strike by February 28

$8m Vol.

$1m today

$734k Liq.

Ends in 21 days

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Politics

Trump

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

70%

Delcy Rodríguez

$17m Vol.

$820k today

$1m Liq.

153

Ends in 11 months

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?

Politics

Ukraine

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?

8%

$14m Vol.

$683k today

$734k Liq.

20,361

Ends in about 2 months

What will Trump say this week (February 8)?

Politics

Trump

What will Trump say this week (February 8)?

41%

Green Day / Bad Bunny

$3m Vol.

$650k today

$7.7k Liq.

54

Ends in 1 day

Starmer out by...?

Politics

Uk

Starmer out by...?

65%

December 31, 2026

$2m Vol.

$504k today

$108k Liq.

98

Elon Musk # tweets February 5 - February 7, 2026?

Politics

Culture

Elon Musk # tweets February 5 - February 7, 2026?

42%

65-89

$1m Vol.

$493k today

$159k Liq.

Ends in 1 day

US x Iran diplomatic meeting in person by...?

Politics

Iran

US x Iran diplomatic meeting in person by...?

24%

February 13

$960k Vol.

$449k today

$30.4k Liq.

185

Ends in 6 days

Elon Musk # tweets February 6 - February 13, 2026?

Politics

Culture

Elon Musk # tweets February 6 - February 13, 2026?

13%

260-279

$2m Vol.

$434k today

$482k Liq.

Ends in 7 days

Thailand Legislative Election Winner

Politics

Elections

Thailand Legislative Election Winner

67%

People’s Party (PPLE)

$6m Vol.

$425k today

$264k Liq.

171

Ends in 1 day

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026?

Politics

Ukraine

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026?

3%

$2m Vol.

$318k today

$430k Liq.

Ends in 21 days

US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31?

Politics

Iran

US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31?

97%

$1m Vol.

$253k today

$23.2k Liq.

Ends in about 2 months