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Politics·Fed Rates

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

Market icon
Politics·Fed Rates

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

3.75% 33.1%

3.5% 25%

3.25% 15%

4.0% 10.4%

Polymarket

$4,486,133 Vol.

3.75% 33.1%

3.5% 25%

3.25% 15%

4.0% 10.4%

Polymarket

$4,486,133 Vol.

≤1.0%

$191,127 Vol.

1%

1.25

$95,494 Vol.

1%

1.5%

$108,059 Vol.

<1%

1.75%

$93,138 Vol.

<1%

2.0%

$94,001 Vol.

1%

2.25%

$52,918 Vol.

1%

2.5%

$81,149 Vol.

1%

2.75%

$23,138 Vol.

7%

3.0%

$299,041 Vol.

4%

3.25%

$36,850 Vol.

15%

3.5%

$55,535 Vol.

25%

3.75%

$351,963 Vol.

33%

4.0%

$1,333,693 Vol.

10%

4.25%

$364,639 Vol.

2%

≥ 4.5%

$1,305,781 Vol.

2%

The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time. The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Polymarket traders price a 34% implied probability for the Fed funds rate at 3.75% by end-2026, narrowly ahead of 3.5% at 24.5%, reflecting closely contested sentiment amid persistent inflation and labor market resilience. December's FOMC dot plot pegged the median at 3.1% with two 25-basis-point cuts in 2025, but recent data—November nonfarm payrolls adding 227,000 jobs and December CPI rising 2.9% year-over-year (core 3.3%)—has traders betting on shallower easing, with 10-year Treasury yields climbing above 4.5%. Divergence from official projections stems from sticky services inflation and wage pressures, keeping consensus above 3.25%. Watch the January 28-29 FOMC for updated guidance and February CPI for swing factors.

Polymarket traders price a 34% implied probability for the Fed funds rate at 3.75% by end-2026, narrowly ahead of 3.5% at 24.5%, reflecting closely contested sentiment amid persistent inflation and labor market resilience. December's FOMC dot plot pegged the median at 3.1% with two 25-basis-point cuts in 2025, but recent data—November nonfarm payrolls adding 227,000 jobs and December CPI rising 2.9% year-over-year (core 3.3%)—has traders betting on shallower easing, with 10-year Treasury yields climbing above 4.5%. Divergence from official projections stems from sticky services inflation and wage pressures, keeping consensus above 3.25%. Watch the January 28-29 FOMC for updated guidance and February CPI for swing factors.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time. The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Polymarket traders price a 34% implied probability for the Fed funds rate at 3.75% by end-2026, narrowly ahead of 3.5% at 24.5%, reflecting closely contested sentiment amid persistent inflation and labor market resilience. December's FOMC dot plot pegged the median at 3.1% with two 25-basis-point cuts in 2025, but recent data—November nonfarm payrolls adding 227,000 jobs and December CPI rising 2.9% year-over-year (core 3.3%)—has traders betting on shallower easing, with 10-year Treasury yields climbing above 4.5%. Divergence from official projections stems from sticky services inflation and wage pressures, keeping consensus above 3.25%. Watch the January 28-29 FOMC for updated guidance and February CPI for swing factors.

Polymarket traders price a 34% implied probability for the Fed funds rate at 3.75% by end-2026, narrowly ahead of 3.5% at 24.5%, reflecting closely contested sentiment amid persistent inflation and labor market resilience. December's FOMC dot plot pegged the median at 3.1% with two 25-basis-point cuts in 2025, but recent data—November nonfarm payrolls adding 227,000 jobs and December CPI rising 2.9% year-over-year (core 3.3%)—has traders betting on shallower easing, with 10-year Treasury yields climbing above 4.5%. Divergence from official projections stems from sticky services inflation and wage pressures, keeping consensus above 3.25%. Watch the January 28-29 FOMC for updated guidance and February CPI for swing factors.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

Related

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Frequently Asked Questions

"What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 15 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "3.75%" at 33%, followed by "3.5%" at 25%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 33¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 33% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?" has generated $4.5 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 12, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?," browse the 15 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?" is "3.75%" at 33%, meaning the market assigns a 33% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "3.5%" at 25%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.