What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

Politics·Fed Rates

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

3.75% 33.7%

3.5% 24%

3.25% 18%

4.0% 9.8%

$3,698,789 Vol.

Dec 9, 2026

≤1.0%

$191,066 Vol.

1.25

$95,439 Vol.

1.5%

$107,999 Vol.

<1%

1.75%

$93,079 Vol.

<1%

2.0%

$93,941 Vol.

2.25%

$52,853 Vol.

2.5%

$59,289 Vol.

2.75%

$22,727 Vol.

3.0%

$298,982 Vol.

3.25%

$36,735 Vol.

18%

3.5%

$54,463 Vol.

24%

3.75%

$351,649 Vol.

34%

4.0%

$1,093,293 Vol.

10%

4.25%

$364,075 Vol.

≥ 4.5%

$788,395 Vol.

3.75% 33.7%

3.5% 24%

3.25% 18%

4.0% 9.8%

$3,698,789 Vol.

Dec 9, 2026

≤1.0%

$191,066 Vol.

1.25

$95,439 Vol.

1.5%

$107,999 Vol.

<1%

1.75%

$93,079 Vol.

<1%

2.0%

$93,941 Vol.

2.25%

$52,853 Vol.

2.5%

$59,289 Vol.

2.75%

$22,727 Vol.

3.0%

$298,982 Vol.

3.25%

$36,735 Vol.

18%

3.5%

$54,463 Vol.

24%

3.75%

$351,649 Vol.

34%

4.0%

$1,093,293 Vol.

10%

4.25%

$364,075 Vol.

≥ 4.5%

$788,395 Vol.

The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.

This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.

The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).

Market Opened: Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ET

Volume

$3,698,789

End Date

Dec 9, 2026

Market Opened

Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

Polymarket traders price a 35.4% implied probability for the fed funds rate at 3.75% by end-2026, with 3.5% close behind at 23.5%, aggregating to strong consensus for a terminal rate near 3.6% amid the Federal Reserve's ongoing easing cycle. This positioning stems from the September FOMC's 50 basis point cut to 4.75-5.00% and dot plot median of 3.4% for end-2026—slightly below trader sentiment due to persistent core services inflation around 3.3% and a resilient labor market, evidenced by September's strong 254,000 nonfarm payrolls. Yesterday's weak October jobs report (just 12,000 added, unemployment at 4.1%) has intensified near-term rate cut expectations via CME FedWatch, indirectly supporting a shallower long-term path. Key catalysts ahead include November 13 CPI data and the December FOMC meeting, with election outcomes potentially influencing policy risks.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated Mar 27, 2026, 5:09 AM UTC

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027?

65%

Fed rate hike in 2026?

26%

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

40%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 15 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "3.75%" at 34%, followed by "3.5%" at 24%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 34¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 34% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?" has generated $3.7 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 12, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?," browse the 15 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?" is "3.75%" at 34%, meaning the market assigns a 34% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "3.5%" at 24%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $3.7 million traded on “What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 34¢ for "3.75%" in the "What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 34% chance that "3.75%" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 34¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 66¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Dec 9, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.

The "What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?" market was recently created. Be one of the first to share your analysis by posting a comment below, or check back as the market grows to read what other traders think. You can also view the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of recent trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

Rules

Market Context

Rules

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Frequently Asked Questions

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