Incumbent Democratic Gov. Wes Moore's strong polling leads—50% against a generic Republican in the latest Gonzales survey and 45% in an OpinionWorks poll, both from late March—anchor trader consensus at 93.8% for a Democrat win in solidly blue Maryland, where no Democratic incumbent has lost re-election since 1950. Recent developments include former Gov. Larry Hogan's January decision against a comeback, leaving Republicans with a fragmented nine-candidate primary field ahead of the June 23 contest, highlighted by a March 26 debate among lesser-known challengers like Dan Cox and John Myrick. Moore's approval rebounded to 61% in February polls despite earlier dips. Late-breaking scandals, economic downturns eroding support, or a surprise GOP consolidation could challenge this, though structural advantages persist.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedNEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat
94%
Republican
6%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat
$0 Vol.
94%
Republican
$8,085 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Maryland gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Gov. Wes Moore's strong polling leads—50% against a generic Republican in the latest Gonzales survey and 45% in an OpinionWorks poll, both from late March—anchor trader consensus at 93.8% for a Democrat win in solidly blue Maryland, where no Democratic incumbent has lost re-election since 1950. Recent developments include former Gov. Larry Hogan's January decision against a comeback, leaving Republicans with a fragmented nine-candidate primary field ahead of the June 23 contest, highlighted by a March 26 debate among lesser-known challengers like Dan Cox and John Myrick. Moore's approval rebounded to 61% in February polls despite earlier dips. Late-breaking scandals, economic downturns eroding support, or a surprise GOP consolidation could challenge this, though structural advantages persist.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Maryland gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 6:29 PM ET
Volume
$8,085End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 6:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Maryland gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Gov. Wes Moore's strong polling leads—50% against a generic Republican in the latest Gonzales survey and 45% in an OpinionWorks poll, both from late March—anchor trader consensus at 93.8% for a Democrat win in solidly blue Maryland, where no Democratic incumbent has lost re-election since 1950. Recent developments include former Gov. Larry Hogan's January decision against a comeback, leaving Republicans with a fragmented nine-candidate primary field ahead of the June 23 contest, highlighted by a March 26 debate among lesser-known challengers like Dan Cox and John Myrick. Moore's approval rebounded to 61% in February polls despite earlier dips. Late-breaking scandals, economic downturns eroding support, or a surprise GOP consolidation could challenge this, though structural advantages persist.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Maryland gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$8,085End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 6:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democratic Gov. Wes Moore's strong polling leads—50% against a generic Republican in the latest Gonzales survey and 45% in an OpinionWorks poll, both from late March—anchor trader consensus at 93.8% for a Democrat win in solidly blue Maryland, where no Democratic incumbent has lost re-election since 1950. Recent developments include former Gov. Larry Hogan's January decision against a comeback, leaving Republicans with a fragmented nine-candidate primary field ahead of the June 23 contest, highlighted by a March 26 debate among lesser-known challengers like Dan Cox and John Myrick. Moore's approval rebounded to 61% in February polls despite earlier dips. Late-breaking scandals, economic downturns eroding support, or a surprise GOP consolidation could challenge this, though structural advantages persist.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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