Incumbent Republican Sen. Bill Cassidy holds a commanding lead in the Louisiana U.S. Senate race, with trader consensus implying 91% odds of a Republican win driven by his consistent polling above 50% in the latest surveys from LSU and others ahead of the November 5 jungle primary. Louisiana's strong Republican lean, evidenced by solid GOP early voting turnout ending October 29 and the state's history of incumbency advantages, positions Cassidy for an outright victory without a December 7 runoff against Democratic challenger Luke Mixon. Recent polls show Cassidy at 55-60% support, widening his margin over the past week amid minimal campaign disruptions. Though exceeding 90%, a late-breaking scandal, depressed turnout, or voting irregularities could force a contested runoff and alter the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedNEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican
91%
Democrat
7%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican
$0 Vol.
91%
Democrat
$0 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Louisiana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Sen. Bill Cassidy holds a commanding lead in the Louisiana U.S. Senate race, with trader consensus implying 91% odds of a Republican win driven by his consistent polling above 50% in the latest surveys from LSU and others ahead of the November 5 jungle primary. Louisiana's strong Republican lean, evidenced by solid GOP early voting turnout ending October 29 and the state's history of incumbency advantages, positions Cassidy for an outright victory without a December 7 runoff against Democratic challenger Luke Mixon. Recent polls show Cassidy at 55-60% support, widening his margin over the past week amid minimal campaign disruptions. Though exceeding 90%, a late-breaking scandal, depressed turnout, or voting irregularities could force a contested runoff and alter the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Louisiana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Louisiana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Sen. Bill Cassidy holds a commanding lead in the Louisiana U.S. Senate race, with trader consensus implying 91% odds of a Republican win driven by his consistent polling above 50% in the latest surveys from LSU and others ahead of the November 5 jungle primary. Louisiana's strong Republican lean, evidenced by solid GOP early voting turnout ending October 29 and the state's history of incumbency advantages, positions Cassidy for an outright victory without a December 7 runoff against Democratic challenger Luke Mixon. Recent polls show Cassidy at 55-60% support, widening his margin over the past week amid minimal campaign disruptions. Though exceeding 90%, a late-breaking scandal, depressed turnout, or voting irregularities could force a contested runoff and alter the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Louisiana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$0End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Sen. Bill Cassidy holds a commanding lead in the Louisiana U.S. Senate race, with trader consensus implying 91% odds of a Republican win driven by his consistent polling above 50% in the latest surveys from LSU and others ahead of the November 5 jungle primary. Louisiana's strong Republican lean, evidenced by solid GOP early voting turnout ending October 29 and the state's history of incumbency advantages, positions Cassidy for an outright victory without a December 7 runoff against Democratic challenger Luke Mixon. Recent polls show Cassidy at 55-60% support, widening his margin over the past week amid minimal campaign disruptions. Though exceeding 90%, a late-breaking scandal, depressed turnout, or voting irregularities could force a contested runoff and alter the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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