Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 48.5% implied probability for a Bank of Mexico (Banxico) rate decrease in June, reflecting the Governing Board's dovish surprise 25 basis point cut to 6.75% on March 26 despite headline inflation accelerating to 4.59% year-over-year in March—well above the 3% target midpoint. This easing resumed amid resilient labor market conditions, with unemployment ticking up modestly to 2.4% but below forecasts, and a moderate Mexican peso depreciation against the U.S. dollar since the decision. Early April inflation data eased slightly to 4.53% year-over-year, bolstering cut expectations, while a no-change outcome at 31.5% accounts for persistent price pressures; hikes remain unlikely at 2.1%. Traders eye the May 7 policy meeting and upcoming CPI releases as key catalysts ahead of June.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedBank of Mexico Decision in June
Bank of Mexico Decision in June
No change 40%
Increase 2.0%
Decrease 0
NEW
NEW
Jun 25, 2026
Decrease
48%
No change
32%
Increase
2%
No change 40%
Increase 2.0%
Decrease 0
NEW
NEW
Jun 25, 2026
Decrease
$437 Vol.
48%
No change
$282 Vol.
32%
Increase
$808 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Mexico's June 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for June 25, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 48.5% implied probability for a Bank of Mexico (Banxico) rate decrease in June, reflecting the Governing Board's dovish surprise 25 basis point cut to 6.75% on March 26 despite headline inflation accelerating to 4.59% year-over-year in March—well above the 3% target midpoint. This easing resumed amid resilient labor market conditions, with unemployment ticking up modestly to 2.4% but below forecasts, and a moderate Mexican peso depreciation against the U.S. dollar since the decision. Early April inflation data eased slightly to 4.53% year-over-year, bolstering cut expectations, while a no-change outcome at 31.5% accounts for persistent price pressures; hikes remain unlikely at 2.1%. Traders eye the May 7 policy meeting and upcoming CPI releases as key catalysts ahead of June.
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Mexico's June 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for June 25, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for June 25, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Mar 27, 2026, 4:41 PM ET
Volume
$1,526End Date
Jun 25, 2026Market Opened
Mar 27, 2026, 4:41 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Mexico's June 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for June 25, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 48.5% implied probability for a Bank of Mexico (Banxico) rate decrease in June, reflecting the Governing Board's dovish surprise 25 basis point cut to 6.75% on March 26 despite headline inflation accelerating to 4.59% year-over-year in March—well above the 3% target midpoint. This easing resumed amid resilient labor market conditions, with unemployment ticking up modestly to 2.4% but below forecasts, and a moderate Mexican peso depreciation against the U.S. dollar since the decision. Early April inflation data eased slightly to 4.53% year-over-year, bolstering cut expectations, while a no-change outcome at 31.5% accounts for persistent price pressures; hikes remain unlikely at 2.1%. Traders eye the May 7 policy meeting and upcoming CPI releases as key catalysts ahead of June.
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Mexico's June 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for June 25, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for June 25, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$1,526End Date
Jun 25, 2026Market Opened
Mar 27, 2026, 4:41 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 48.5% implied probability for a Bank of Mexico (Banxico) rate decrease in June, reflecting the Governing Board's dovish surprise 25 basis point cut to 6.75% on March 26 despite headline inflation accelerating to 4.59% year-over-year in March—well above the 3% target midpoint. This easing resumed amid resilient labor market conditions, with unemployment ticking up modestly to 2.4% but below forecasts, and a moderate Mexican peso depreciation against the U.S. dollar since the decision. Early April inflation data eased slightly to 4.53% year-over-year, bolstering cut expectations, while a no-change outcome at 31.5% accounts for persistent price pressures; hikes remain unlikely at 2.1%. Traders eye the May 7 policy meeting and upcoming CPI releases as key catalysts ahead of June.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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