Banxico’s explicit forward guidance after the May 7 cut to 6.50%—its final 25-basis-point reduction—has anchored trader consensus around no change at the June 25 meeting. The board highlighted weaker Q1 activity that widened economic slack, easing headline inflation to 4.45% and core to 4.26%, and ongoing global trade and geopolitical risks as reasons to hold the policy rate steady while inflation converges to the 3% target in Q2 2027. Market-implied odds above 95% for unchanged reflect this pause signal and limited near-term data surprises. A sharper inflation rebound or unexpectedly strong growth figures ahead of the meeting could reopen debate on further easing, though such shifts appear low-probability given current trajectories.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedBank of Mexico Decision in June
Bank of Mexico Decision in June
No change 100.0%
Decrease <1%
Increase <1%
$29,089 Vol.
$29,089 Vol.
Jun 24, 2026
Decrease
No
No change
Yes
Increase
No
No change 100.0%
Decrease <1%
Increase <1%
$29,089 Vol.
$29,089 Vol.
Jun 24, 2026
Decrease
$2,775 Vol.
No
No change
$14,275 Vol.
Yes
Increase
$12,039 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Mexico's June 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for June 25, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Banxico’s explicit forward guidance after the May 7 cut to 6.50%—its final 25-basis-point reduction—has anchored trader consensus around no change at the June 25 meeting. The board highlighted weaker Q1 activity that widened economic slack, easing headline inflation to 4.45% and core to 4.26%, and ongoing global trade and geopolitical risks as reasons to hold the policy rate steady while inflation converges to the 3% target in Q2 2027. Market-implied odds above 95% for unchanged reflect this pause signal and limited near-term data surprises. A sharper inflation rebound or unexpectedly strong growth figures ahead of the meeting could reopen debate on further easing, though such shifts appear low-probability given current trajectories.
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Mexico's June 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for June 25, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for June 25, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Mar 27, 2026, 4:41 PM ET
Volume
$29,089End Date
Jun 25, 2026Market Opened
Mar 27, 2026, 4:41 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Mexico's June 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for June 25, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Banxico’s explicit forward guidance after the May 7 cut to 6.50%—its final 25-basis-point reduction—has anchored trader consensus around no change at the June 25 meeting. The board highlighted weaker Q1 activity that widened economic slack, easing headline inflation to 4.45% and core to 4.26%, and ongoing global trade and geopolitical risks as reasons to hold the policy rate steady while inflation converges to the 3% target in Q2 2027. Market-implied odds above 95% for unchanged reflect this pause signal and limited near-term data surprises. A sharper inflation rebound or unexpectedly strong growth figures ahead of the meeting could reopen debate on further easing, though such shifts appear low-probability given current trajectories.
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Mexico's June 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for June 25, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for June 25, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$29,089End Date
Jun 25, 2026Market Opened
Mar 27, 2026, 4:41 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Banxico’s explicit forward guidance after the May 7 cut to 6.50%—its final 25-basis-point reduction—has anchored trader consensus around no change at the June 25 meeting. The board highlighted weaker Q1 activity that widened economic slack, easing headline inflation to 4.45% and core to 4.26%, and ongoing global trade and geopolitical risks as reasons to hold the policy rate steady while inflation converges to the 3% target in Q2 2027. Market-implied odds above 95% for unchanged reflect this pause signal and limited near-term data surprises. A sharper inflation rebound or unexpectedly strong growth figures ahead of the meeting could reopen debate on further easing, though such shifts appear low-probability given current trajectories.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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