Banxico’s explicit forward guidance after the May 7 cut to 6.50%—its final 25-basis-point reduction—has anchored trader consensus around no change at the June 25 meeting. The board highlighted weaker Q1 activity that widened economic slack, easing headline inflation to 4.45% and core to 4.26%, and ongoing global trade and geopolitical risks as reasons to hold the policy rate steady while inflation converges to the 3% target in Q2 2027. Market-implied odds above 95% for unchanged reflect this pause signal and limited near-term data surprises. A sharper inflation rebound or unexpectedly strong growth figures ahead of the meeting could reopen debate on further easing, though such shifts appear low-probability given current trajectories.