Market icon

Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?

$522,403 Vol.

OUTCOME
% CHANCE

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.

If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Volume
$522,403
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Created At
Dec 22, 2025, 10:28 PM UTC
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Beware of external links.

$522,403 Vol.

Market icon

Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?

OUTCOME
% CHANCE
Market icon

xAI

$152,402 Vol.

33%

Market icon

OpenAI

$227,704 Vol.

25%

Market icon

DeepSeek

$1,359 Vol.

17%

Market icon

Anthropic

$135,475 Vol.

14%

Market icon

Z.ai

$1,133 Vol.

13%

Market icon

Mistral

$98 Vol.

11%

Market icon

Baidu

$332 Vol.

14%

Market icon

Nvidia

$1,678 Vol.

7%

Market icon

Meta

$1,139 Vol.

5%

Market icon

Alibaba

$147 Vol.

14%

Market icon

Meituan

$936 Vol.

4%

About

Volume
$522,403
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Created At
Dec 22, 2025, 10:28 PM UTC
shield

Beware of external links.