Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?
$522,403 Vol.
OUTCOME
% CHANCE

xAI
$152,402 Vol.
33%

xAI
$152,402 Vol.
33%

OpenAI
$227,704 Vol.
25%

OpenAI
$227,704 Vol.
25%

DeepSeek
$1,359 Vol.
17%

DeepSeek
$1,359 Vol.
17%

Anthropic
$135,475 Vol.
14%

Anthropic
$135,475 Vol.
14%

Z.ai
$1,133 Vol.
13%

Z.ai
$1,133 Vol.
13%

Mistral
$98 Vol.
11%

Mistral
$98 Vol.
11%

Baidu
$332 Vol.
14%

Baidu
$332 Vol.
14%

Nvidia
$1,678 Vol.
7%

Nvidia
$1,678 Vol.
7%

Meta
$1,139 Vol.
5%

Meta
$1,139 Vol.
5%

Alibaba
$147 Vol.
14%

Alibaba
$147 Vol.
14%

Meituan
$936 Vol.
4%

Meituan
$936 Vol.
4%
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Created At: Dec 22, 2025, 10:28 PM UTC
Volume
$522,403End Date
Jun 30, 2026Created At
Dec 22, 2025, 10:28 PM UTCResolver
0x65070BE91...$522,403 Vol.
Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?
OUTCOME
% CHANCE

xAI
$152,402 Vol.
33%

OpenAI
$227,704 Vol.
25%

DeepSeek
$1,359 Vol.
17%

Anthropic
$135,475 Vol.
14%

Z.ai
$1,133 Vol.
13%

Mistral
$98 Vol.
11%

Baidu
$332 Vol.
14%

Nvidia
$1,678 Vol.
7%

Meta
$1,139 Vol.
5%

Alibaba
$147 Vol.
14%

Meituan
$936 Vol.
4%
About
Volume
$522,403End Date
Jun 30, 2026Created At
Dec 22, 2025, 10:28 PM UTCResolver
0x65070BE91...Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.

Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.