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Tech·AI

Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?

Market icon
Tech·AI

Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?

$1,433,380 Vol.

Jun 30, 2026
Polymarket

$1,433,380 Vol.

Polymarket
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? icon

OpenAI

$356,309 Vol.

30%

Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? icon

xAI

$542,823 Vol.

13%

Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model by June 30? icon

Alibaba

$5,019 Vol.

7%

Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by June 30? icon

DeepSeek

$228,245 Vol.

7%

Will Z.ai have a #1 AI model by June 30? icon

Z.ai

$4,638 Vol.

6%

Will Nvidia have a #1 AI model by June 30? icon

Nvidia

$5,948 Vol.

5%

Will Meta have a #1 AI model by June 30? icon

Meta

$14,991 Vol.

10%

Will Baidu have a #1 AI model by June 30? icon

Baidu

$1,991 Vol.

4%

Will Mistral have a #1 AI model by June 30? icon

Mistral

$12,694 Vol.

4%

Will Meituan have a #1 AI model by June 30? icon

Meituan

$2,751 Vol.

3%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7 Thinking model tops the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with a 1505 Elo score, dominating the top four spots alongside Claude Opus 4.6 variants and underscoring superior reasoning and coding capabilities that have fueled trader consensus for sustained leadership through June 30. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro trails closely at matching or near-top Elo, while OpenAI's GPT-5.4 and Meta's newly released Muse Spark in early April round out the competitive frontier, though none have displaced Anthropic yet. With release cycles accelerating—evidenced by 20+ frontier models in 2026's first quarter—traders eye potential challengers like xAI's next Grok iteration or OpenAI updates ahead of the LMSYS-resolved deadline, amid U.S. closed-source labs' edge over Chinese rivals.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.

If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Volume
$1,433,380
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 22, 2025, 5:28 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7 Thinking model tops the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with a 1505 Elo score, dominating the top four spots alongside Claude Opus 4.6 variants and underscoring superior reasoning and coding capabilities that have fueled trader consensus for sustained leadership through June 30. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro trails closely at matching or near-top Elo, while OpenAI's GPT-5.4 and Meta's newly released Muse Spark in early April round out the competitive frontier, though none have displaced Anthropic yet. With release cycles accelerating—evidenced by 20+ frontier models in 2026's first quarter—traders eye potential challengers like xAI's next Grok iteration or OpenAI updates ahead of the LMSYS-resolved deadline, amid U.S. closed-source labs' edge over Chinese rivals.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.

If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Volume
$1,433,380
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 22, 2025, 5:28 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.

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Will any Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Exam?

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Anthropic" at 100%, followed by "OpenAI" at 30%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?" has generated $1.4 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 22, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?" is "Anthropic" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "OpenAI" at 30%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.