xAI 99.6%
Google <1%
OpenAI <1%
Z.ai <1%
$377,815 Vol.
$377,815 Vol.
Dec 31, 2025

No

OpenAI
No

Z.ai
No

DeepSeek
No

Mistral
No

Anthropic
No

Alibaba
No

xAI
Yes

Moonshot
No

Meituan
No
xAI 99.6%
Google <1%
OpenAI <1%
Z.ai <1%
$377,815 Vol.
$377,815 Vol.
Dec 31, 2025

$39,475 Vol.
No

OpenAI
$152,012 Vol.
No

Z.ai
$18,598 Vol.
No

DeepSeek
$14,766 Vol.
No

Mistral
$14,686 Vol.
No

Anthropic
$33,060 Vol.
No

Alibaba
$14,220 Vol.
No

xAI
$60,757 Vol.
Yes

Moonshot
$14,119 Vol.
No

Meituan
$16,122 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2025, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the third-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2025, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the third-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the third-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Market Opened: Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ET
Volume
$377,815End Date
Dec 31, 2025Market Opened
Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No



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