Trader consensus on an 82% implied probability for "No" reflects the absence of substantive progress toward a federal AI safety bill in the 119th Congress, amid a Trump administration prioritizing light-touch regulation over stringent safety mandates. The White House's March 2026 National AI Legislative Framework urged Congress to focus on narrow issues like AI-enabled fraud and child protections while preempting patchwork state laws, signaling opposition to comprehensive oversight. Recent state-level advances, such as Tennessee narrowing its AI safety bill after reported White House feedback and Nebraska enacting chatbot disclosure rules, underscore federal inaction. With no major bills advancing past introduction and the session winding down, enactment before 2027 faces steep procedural and partisan hurdles.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$87,578 Vol.
$87,578 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$87,578 Vol.
$87,578 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Trader consensus on an 82% implied probability for "No" reflects the absence of substantive progress toward a federal AI safety bill in the 119th Congress, amid a Trump administration prioritizing light-touch regulation over stringent safety mandates. The White House's March 2026 National AI Legislative Framework urged Congress to focus on narrow issues like AI-enabled fraud and child protections while preempting patchwork state laws, signaling opposition to comprehensive oversight. Recent state-level advances, such as Tennessee narrowing its AI safety bill after reported White House feedback and Nebraska enacting chatbot disclosure rules, underscore federal inaction. With no major bills advancing past introduction and the session winding down, enactment before 2027 faces steep procedural and partisan hurdles.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ET
Volume
$87,578End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Trader consensus on an 82% implied probability for "No" reflects the absence of substantive progress toward a federal AI safety bill in the 119th Congress, amid a Trump administration prioritizing light-touch regulation over stringent safety mandates. The White House's March 2026 National AI Legislative Framework urged Congress to focus on narrow issues like AI-enabled fraud and child protections while preempting patchwork state laws, signaling opposition to comprehensive oversight. Recent state-level advances, such as Tennessee narrowing its AI safety bill after reported White House feedback and Nebraska enacting chatbot disclosure rules, underscore federal inaction. With no major bills advancing past introduction and the session winding down, enactment before 2027 faces steep procedural and partisan hurdles.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$87,578End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on an 82% implied probability for "No" reflects the absence of substantive progress toward a federal AI safety bill in the 119th Congress, amid a Trump administration prioritizing light-touch regulation over stringent safety mandates. The White House's March 2026 National AI Legislative Framework urged Congress to focus on narrow issues like AI-enabled fraud and child protections while preempting patchwork state laws, signaling opposition to comprehensive oversight. Recent state-level advances, such as Tennessee narrowing its AI safety bill after reported White House feedback and Nebraska enacting chatbot disclosure rules, underscore federal inaction. With no major bills advancing past introduction and the session winding down, enactment before 2027 faces steep procedural and partisan hurdles.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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