US and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged or destroyed Iran's key uranium enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, leaving the program largely dormant with roughly 440 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium inaccessible or compromised in tunnels. IAEA inspectors have had no access to affected sites since mid-2025, confirming no verified enrichment activity, while assessments indicate at least a year would be needed to reconstitute capabilities even if Iran decided to pursue a weapon. Recent satellite imagery shows renewed activity at the Minzadayi weapons-development site through early October 2026, yet this falls short of enabling a test by year-end. Trader consensus at 95% against a nuclear test before 2027 reflects these structural barriers, though late diplomatic shifts, undetected underground progress, or rapid policy changes could still alter timelines within the narrow resolution window.