Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and subsequent operations through early 2026 severely damaged or destroyed key Iranian enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, while limiting IAEA inspector access and leaving substantial highly enriched uranium stockpiles inaccessible or under rubble. These actions, combined with ongoing reconstruction efforts at select weaponization-related sites like Taleghan 2, have extended timelines for any potential weaponization or testing activities according to U.S. intelligence assessments. Iran continues to enrich uranium to 60 percent and faces IAEA noncompliance findings, yet no verified test preparations or seismic events consistent with a nuclear detonation have emerged in the past year. Trader consensus reflects these structural setbacks and diplomatic pressures as primary barriers to a test before 2027.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Prueba nuclear de Irán antes de 2027?
¿Prueba nuclear de Irán antes de 2027?
Sí
$202,502 Vol.
$202,502 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$202,502 Vol.
$202,502 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and subsequent operations through early 2026 severely damaged or destroyed key Iranian enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, while limiting IAEA inspector access and leaving substantial highly enriched uranium stockpiles inaccessible or under rubble. These actions, combined with ongoing reconstruction efforts at select weaponization-related sites like Taleghan 2, have extended timelines for any potential weaponization or testing activities according to U.S. intelligence assessments. Iran continues to enrich uranium to 60 percent and faces IAEA noncompliance findings, yet no verified test preparations or seismic events consistent with a nuclear detonation have emerged in the past year. Trader consensus reflects these structural setbacks and diplomatic pressures as primary barriers to a test before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volumen
$202,502Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and subsequent operations through early 2026 severely damaged or destroyed key Iranian enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, while limiting IAEA inspector access and leaving substantial highly enriched uranium stockpiles inaccessible or under rubble. These actions, combined with ongoing reconstruction efforts at select weaponization-related sites like Taleghan 2, have extended timelines for any potential weaponization or testing activities according to U.S. intelligence assessments. Iran continues to enrich uranium to 60 percent and faces IAEA noncompliance findings, yet no verified test preparations or seismic events consistent with a nuclear detonation have emerged in the past year. Trader consensus reflects these structural setbacks and diplomatic pressures as primary barriers to a test before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$202,502Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and subsequent operations through early 2026 severely damaged or destroyed key Iranian enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, while limiting IAEA inspector access and leaving substantial highly enriched uranium stockpiles inaccessible or under rubble. These actions, combined with ongoing reconstruction efforts at select weaponization-related sites like Taleghan 2, have extended timelines for any potential weaponization or testing activities according to U.S. intelligence assessments. Iran continues to enrich uranium to 60 percent and faces IAEA noncompliance findings, yet no verified test preparations or seismic events consistent with a nuclear detonation have emerged in the past year. Trader consensus reflects these structural setbacks and diplomatic pressures as primary barriers to a test before 2027.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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