Iran's nuclear facilities sustained extensive damage from U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026, leaving major enrichment sites like Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan largely inoperable with limited centrifuge capacity and inaccessible stockpiles of 60% enriched uranium. IAEA inspectors have been denied access to these locations since mid-2025, yet reporting confirms no active enrichment or weaponization at declared sites amid stalled diplomatic talks following the June 2026 memorandum of understanding. Recent satellite imagery shows construction and repairs at underground locations such as Pickaxe Mountain, but no indicators of test preparation or breakout activity. Trader consensus reflects these constraints and sustained international pressure, though a rapid shift in Iranian leadership priorities or collapse of ongoing negotiations could still compress timelines toward a test before 2027.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated5% chance
$262,808 Vol.
$262,808 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
5% chance
$262,808 Vol.
$262,808 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Iran's nuclear facilities sustained extensive damage from U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026, leaving major enrichment sites like Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan largely inoperable with limited centrifuge capacity and inaccessible stockpiles of 60% enriched uranium. IAEA inspectors have been denied access to these locations since mid-2025, yet reporting confirms no active enrichment or weaponization at declared sites amid stalled diplomatic talks following the June 2026 memorandum of understanding. Recent satellite imagery shows construction and repairs at underground locations such as Pickaxe Mountain, but no indicators of test preparation or breakout activity. Trader consensus reflects these constraints and sustained international pressure, though a rapid shift in Iranian leadership priorities or collapse of ongoing negotiations could still compress timelines toward a test before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volume
$262,808End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Iran's nuclear facilities sustained extensive damage from U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026, leaving major enrichment sites like Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan largely inoperable with limited centrifuge capacity and inaccessible stockpiles of 60% enriched uranium. IAEA inspectors have been denied access to these locations since mid-2025, yet reporting confirms no active enrichment or weaponization at declared sites amid stalled diplomatic talks following the June 2026 memorandum of understanding. Recent satellite imagery shows construction and repairs at underground locations such as Pickaxe Mountain, but no indicators of test preparation or breakout activity. Trader consensus reflects these constraints and sustained international pressure, though a rapid shift in Iranian leadership priorities or collapse of ongoing negotiations could still compress timelines toward a test before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$262,808End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran's nuclear facilities sustained extensive damage from U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026, leaving major enrichment sites like Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan largely inoperable with limited centrifuge capacity and inaccessible stockpiles of 60% enriched uranium. IAEA inspectors have been denied access to these locations since mid-2025, yet reporting confirms no active enrichment or weaponization at declared sites amid stalled diplomatic talks following the June 2026 memorandum of understanding. Recent satellite imagery shows construction and repairs at underground locations such as Pickaxe Mountain, but no indicators of test preparation or breakout activity. Trader consensus reflects these constraints and sustained international pressure, though a rapid shift in Iranian leadership priorities or collapse of ongoing negotiations could still compress timelines toward a test before 2027.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions