Iran's nuclear facilities sustained extensive damage from U.S. and Israeli strikes in June 2025, burying stockpiles of up to 60% enriched uranium under rubble at sites including Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan. IAEA inspectors have lacked access to these locations and related enrichment infrastructure since then, preventing verification of any resumed activities or the material's current status. An interim U.S.-Iran memorandum in June 2026 that referenced potential IAEA-supervised down-blending collapsed within weeks, leaving enrichment and weaponization pathways constrained. Internal Iranian debate on nuclear options has surfaced amid ongoing tensions, yet no confirmed progress toward device assembly or testing has occurred. A nuclear test before 2027 would require overcoming these physical and monitoring barriers in a narrow window, though shifts in access, reconstruction pace at peripheral sites like Parchin, or policy decisions could alter timelines.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedView resolved

Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions