Iran's nuclear infrastructure suffered extensive damage from U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026, leaving key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan largely inoperable and limiting Iran's capacity for rapid weaponization. The IAEA has lacked access to most facilities since mid-2025, preventing verification of the surviving 60-percent enriched uranium stockpile, yet satellite imagery and intelligence assessments show reconstruction focused on fortifying underground sites such as Pickaxe Mountain rather than active enrichment or test preparations. Tehran has publicly reaffirmed its non-weaponization stance amid diplomatic contacts, and no verified steps toward a nuclear explosive test have emerged in recent months. Trader consensus on "No" reflects these structural setbacks and the time required for any reversal. A sudden leadership decision or undetected recovery at hardened facilities could still shift timelines before 2027.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated5% chance
$262,830 Vol.
$262,830 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
5% chance
$262,830 Vol.
$262,830 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Iran's nuclear infrastructure suffered extensive damage from U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026, leaving key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan largely inoperable and limiting Iran's capacity for rapid weaponization. The IAEA has lacked access to most facilities since mid-2025, preventing verification of the surviving 60-percent enriched uranium stockpile, yet satellite imagery and intelligence assessments show reconstruction focused on fortifying underground sites such as Pickaxe Mountain rather than active enrichment or test preparations. Tehran has publicly reaffirmed its non-weaponization stance amid diplomatic contacts, and no verified steps toward a nuclear explosive test have emerged in recent months. Trader consensus on "No" reflects these structural setbacks and the time required for any reversal. A sudden leadership decision or undetected recovery at hardened facilities could still shift timelines before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volume
$262,830End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Iran's nuclear infrastructure suffered extensive damage from U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026, leaving key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan largely inoperable and limiting Iran's capacity for rapid weaponization. The IAEA has lacked access to most facilities since mid-2025, preventing verification of the surviving 60-percent enriched uranium stockpile, yet satellite imagery and intelligence assessments show reconstruction focused on fortifying underground sites such as Pickaxe Mountain rather than active enrichment or test preparations. Tehran has publicly reaffirmed its non-weaponization stance amid diplomatic contacts, and no verified steps toward a nuclear explosive test have emerged in recent months. Trader consensus on "No" reflects these structural setbacks and the time required for any reversal. A sudden leadership decision or undetected recovery at hardened facilities could still shift timelines before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$262,830End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran's nuclear infrastructure suffered extensive damage from U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026, leaving key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan largely inoperable and limiting Iran's capacity for rapid weaponization. The IAEA has lacked access to most facilities since mid-2025, preventing verification of the surviving 60-percent enriched uranium stockpile, yet satellite imagery and intelligence assessments show reconstruction focused on fortifying underground sites such as Pickaxe Mountain rather than active enrichment or test preparations. Tehran has publicly reaffirmed its non-weaponization stance amid diplomatic contacts, and no verified steps toward a nuclear explosive test have emerged in recent months. Trader consensus on "No" reflects these structural setbacks and the time required for any reversal. A sudden leadership decision or undetected recovery at hardened facilities could still shift timelines before 2027.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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