Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and 2026 severely damaged Iran's enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, along with related sites, while leaving substantial uncertainty over surviving 60% enriched uranium stockpiles now stored in tunnels. U.S. intelligence and assessments place the timeline to a testable device at roughly one year even if Iran commits fully, with no credible indications of an active weapons program or enrichment restart visible via satellite or IAEA monitoring, which has been blocked since the attacks. Iran's historical restraint, including its declared civilian focus and absence of any prior nuclear test, reinforces the trader consensus reflected in the 96.3% probability for "No." A test before 2027 would require an undetected rapid reconstitution and decision amid ongoing diplomatic and military pressures, scenarios experts view as improbable in the remaining timeframe.