Ensemble weather models from ECMWF and GFS, corroborated by ARPA Lombardia forecasts, project Milan's highest temperature on March 18 at precisely 14°C, fueling trader consensus at 100% implied probability. These projections stem from a stable high-pressure ridge over northern Italy, maintaining mild advection with daytime highs stabilizing around 13-15°C amid light southerly winds and partial cloud cover—historical March norms for Milan average 12-14°C. Verified soundings and recent sounder data show low convective potential, minimizing upside volatility. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen Saharan dust plume boosting insolation for 15-16°C spikes or a late-afternoon microburst lapse rate shift, though ensemble spreads under 1°C render such deviations improbable.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à Milan le 18 mars ?
La température la plus élevée à Milan le 18 mars ?
14°C 100.0%
6°C ou moins <1%
7°C <1%
8°C <1%
$7,575 Vol.
$7,575 Vol.
6°C ou moins
Non
7°C
Non
8°C
Non
9°C
Non
10°C
Non
11°C
Non
12°C
Non
13°C
Non
14°C
Oui
15°C
Non
16°C ou plus
Non
14°C 100.0%
6°C ou moins <1%
7°C <1%
8°C <1%
$7,575 Vol.
$7,575 Vol.
6°C ou moins
Non
7°C
Non
8°C
Non
9°C
Non
10°C
Non
11°C
Non
12°C
Non
13°C
Non
14°C
Oui
15°C
Non
16°C ou plus
Non
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 16, 2026, 2:14 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Oui
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Oui
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ensemble weather models from ECMWF and GFS, corroborated by ARPA Lombardia forecasts, project Milan's highest temperature on March 18 at precisely 14°C, fueling trader consensus at 100% implied probability. These projections stem from a stable high-pressure ridge over northern Italy, maintaining mild advection with daytime highs stabilizing around 13-15°C amid light southerly winds and partial cloud cover—historical March norms for Milan average 12-14°C. Verified soundings and recent sounder data show low convective potential, minimizing upside volatility. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen Saharan dust plume boosting insolation for 15-16°C spikes or a late-afternoon microburst lapse rate shift, though ensemble spreads under 1°C render such deviations improbable.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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