Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 69% implied probability that President-elect Trump will face impeachment by the House before his second term ends in January 2029, driven primarily by the GOP's razor-thin House majority of around 220-215 seats, leaving scant margin for defections amid controversies. Recent withdrawal of Rep. Matt Gaetz's attorney general nomination on November 22 amid an ethics probe, followed by allegations against Defense Secretary nominee Pete Hegseth, underscore strains on Republican unity during Senate confirmation hearings starting in January. No impeachment articles have been filed, but historical precedent from Trump's two prior impeachments, ongoing transition tensions, and potential flashpoints like debt ceiling negotiations or executive actions could test party discipline in the narrowly divided Congress.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$23,090 Vol.
$23,090 Vol.
Jan 20, 2029
$23,090 Vol.
$23,090 Vol.
Jan 20, 2029
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 69% implied probability that President-elect Trump will face impeachment by the House before his second term ends in January 2029, driven primarily by the GOP's razor-thin House majority of around 220-215 seats, leaving scant margin for defections amid controversies. Recent withdrawal of Rep. Matt Gaetz's attorney general nomination on November 22 amid an ethics probe, followed by allegations against Defense Secretary nominee Pete Hegseth, underscore strains on Republican unity during Senate confirmation hearings starting in January. No impeachment articles have been filed, but historical precedent from Trump's two prior impeachments, ongoing transition tensions, and potential flashpoints like debt ceiling negotiations or executive actions could test party discipline in the narrowly divided Congress.
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Market Opened: Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ET
Volume
$23,090End Date
Jan 20, 2029Market Opened
Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 69% implied probability that President-elect Trump will face impeachment by the House before his second term ends in January 2029, driven primarily by the GOP's razor-thin House majority of around 220-215 seats, leaving scant margin for defections amid controversies. Recent withdrawal of Rep. Matt Gaetz's attorney general nomination on November 22 amid an ethics probe, followed by allegations against Defense Secretary nominee Pete Hegseth, underscore strains on Republican unity during Senate confirmation hearings starting in January. No impeachment articles have been filed, but historical precedent from Trump's two prior impeachments, ongoing transition tensions, and potential flashpoints like debt ceiling negotiations or executive actions could test party discipline in the narrowly divided Congress.
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Volume
$23,090End Date
Jan 20, 2029Market Opened
Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 69% implied probability that President-elect Trump will face impeachment by the House before his second term ends in January 2029, driven primarily by the GOP's razor-thin House majority of around 220-215 seats, leaving scant margin for defections amid controversies. Recent withdrawal of Rep. Matt Gaetz's attorney general nomination on November 22 amid an ethics probe, followed by allegations against Defense Secretary nominee Pete Hegseth, underscore strains on Republican unity during Senate confirmation hearings starting in January. No impeachment articles have been filed, but historical precedent from Trump's two prior impeachments, ongoing transition tensions, and potential flashpoints like debt ceiling negotiations or executive actions could test party discipline in the narrowly divided Congress.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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