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Will the UK designate the IRGC a terrorist organization by June 30?

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Will the UK designate the IRGC a terrorist organization by June 30?

43% chance
Polymarket

$80,685 Vol.

43% chance
Polymarket

$80,685 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United Kingdom government formally designates the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organization by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." This includes designation as a proscribed terrorist group or organisation according to the UK Home Office, as well as the use of Royal Prerogative Powers or Orders in Council, legislation signed into law, or the creation of a new national designation that formally designates the IRGC as a terrorist organization. Statements by government officials, including the Prime Minister, Home Office, or National Crime Service, will not count unless accompanied by a formal designation. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting or official information from the UK Government.Trader consensus favors "No" at 56.5% implied probability for the UK proscribing Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organization under the Terrorism Act 2000 by June 30, driven by the government's longstanding reluctance to designate state actors despite mounting pressure. The EU's January 2026 terrorist listing of the IRGC prompted parliamentary motions, Liberal Democrat legislation proposals, and a March 28 London rally urging action, amplified by recent Telegraph reporting on March 28 of an alleged Iranian spy recruitment hub in London via Press TV. However, Prime Minister statements as recent as March 25 affirmed proscription powers are unfit for state entities like the IRGC, requiring Home Secretary order and parliamentary approval with no progress amid diplomatic concerns, leaving traders skeptical of resolution before the deadline.

Trader consensus favors "No" at 56.5% implied probability for the UK proscribing Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organization under the Terrorism Act 2000 by June 30, driven by the government's longstanding reluctance to designate state actors despite mounting pressure. The EU's January 2026 terrorist listing of the IRGC prompted parliamentary motions, Liberal Democrat legislation proposals, and a March 28 London rally urging action, amplified by recent Telegraph reporting on March 28 of an alleged Iranian spy recruitment hub in London via Press TV. However, Prime Minister statements as recent as March 25 affirmed proscription powers are unfit for state entities like the IRGC, requiring Home Secretary order and parliamentary approval with no progress amid diplomatic concerns, leaving traders skeptical of resolution before the deadline.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United Kingdom government formally designates the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organization by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." This includes designation as a proscribed terrorist group or organisation according to the UK Home Office, as well as the use of Royal Prerogative Powers or Orders in Council, legislation signed into law, or the creation of a new national designation that formally designates the IRGC as a terrorist organization. Statements by government officials, including the Prime Minister, Home Office, or National Crime Service, will not count unless accompanied by a formal designation. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting or official information from the UK Government.Trader consensus favors "No" at 56.5% implied probability for the UK proscribing Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organization under the Terrorism Act 2000 by June 30, driven by the government's longstanding reluctance to designate state actors despite mounting pressure. The EU's January 2026 terrorist listing of the IRGC prompted parliamentary motions, Liberal Democrat legislation proposals, and a March 28 London rally urging action, amplified by recent Telegraph reporting on March 28 of an alleged Iranian spy recruitment hub in London via Press TV. However, Prime Minister statements as recent as March 25 affirmed proscription powers are unfit for state entities like the IRGC, requiring Home Secretary order and parliamentary approval with no progress amid diplomatic concerns, leaving traders skeptical of resolution before the deadline.

Trader consensus favors "No" at 56.5% implied probability for the UK proscribing Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organization under the Terrorism Act 2000 by June 30, driven by the government's longstanding reluctance to designate state actors despite mounting pressure. The EU's January 2026 terrorist listing of the IRGC prompted parliamentary motions, Liberal Democrat legislation proposals, and a March 28 London rally urging action, amplified by recent Telegraph reporting on March 28 of an alleged Iranian spy recruitment hub in London via Press TV. However, Prime Minister statements as recent as March 25 affirmed proscription powers are unfit for state entities like the IRGC, requiring Home Secretary order and parliamentary approval with no progress amid diplomatic concerns, leaving traders skeptical of resolution before the deadline.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will the UK designate the IRGC a terrorist organization by June 30? " is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 43% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 43¢, the market collectively assigns a 43% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will the UK designate the IRGC a terrorist organization by June 30? " has generated $80.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 18, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will the UK designate the IRGC a terrorist organization by June 30? ," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will the UK designate the IRGC a terrorist organization by June 30? " is 43% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 43% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will the UK designate the IRGC a terrorist organization by June 30? " define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.