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Will the UK designate the IRGC a terrorist organization by June 30?

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Will the UK designate the IRGC a terrorist organization by June 30?

43% chance
Polymarket

$80,495 Vol.

43% chance
Polymarket

$80,495 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United Kingdom government formally designates the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organization by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." This includes designation as a proscribed terrorist group or organisation according to the UK Home Office, as well as the use of Royal Prerogative Powers or Orders in Council, legislation signed into law, or the creation of a new national designation that formally designates the IRGC as a terrorist organization. Statements by government officials, including the Prime Minister, Home Office, or National Crime Service, will not count unless accompanied by a formal designation. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting or official information from the UK Government.Despite the European Union's designation of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organisation on January 29, 2026, the UK government has not proscribed it, with the Home Office proscribed list unchanged since January 28. Initial announcements of new legislation to enable proscription of state actors like the IRGC stalled, prompting recent criticism from retired MI5, MI6, and GCHQ directors, opposition MPs including Priti Patel, and a Liberal Democrats bill on March 3. Trader consensus at 57.5% for "No" reflects Labour government's reluctance amid legal hurdles under the Terrorism Act 2000, competing foreign policy priorities, and no parliamentary progress with the June 30 deadline three months away.

Despite the European Union's designation of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organisation on January 29, 2026, the UK government has not proscribed it, with the Home Office proscribed list unchanged since January 28. Initial announcements of new legislation to enable proscription of state actors like the IRGC stalled, prompting recent criticism from retired MI5, MI6, and GCHQ directors, opposition MPs including Priti Patel, and a Liberal Democrats bill on March 3. Trader consensus at 57.5% for "No" reflects Labour government's reluctance amid legal hurdles under the Terrorism Act 2000, competing foreign policy priorities, and no parliamentary progress with the June 30 deadline three months away.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United Kingdom government formally designates the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organization by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." This includes designation as a proscribed terrorist group or organisation according to the UK Home Office, as well as the use of Royal Prerogative Powers or Orders in Council, legislation signed into law, or the creation of a new national designation that formally designates the IRGC as a terrorist organization. Statements by government officials, including the Prime Minister, Home Office, or National Crime Service, will not count unless accompanied by a formal designation. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting or official information from the UK Government.Despite the European Union's designation of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organisation on January 29, 2026, the UK government has not proscribed it, with the Home Office proscribed list unchanged since January 28. Initial announcements of new legislation to enable proscription of state actors like the IRGC stalled, prompting recent criticism from retired MI5, MI6, and GCHQ directors, opposition MPs including Priti Patel, and a Liberal Democrats bill on March 3. Trader consensus at 57.5% for "No" reflects Labour government's reluctance amid legal hurdles under the Terrorism Act 2000, competing foreign policy priorities, and no parliamentary progress with the June 30 deadline three months away.

Despite the European Union's designation of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organisation on January 29, 2026, the UK government has not proscribed it, with the Home Office proscribed list unchanged since January 28. Initial announcements of new legislation to enable proscription of state actors like the IRGC stalled, prompting recent criticism from retired MI5, MI6, and GCHQ directors, opposition MPs including Priti Patel, and a Liberal Democrats bill on March 3. Trader consensus at 57.5% for "No" reflects Labour government's reluctance amid legal hurdles under the Terrorism Act 2000, competing foreign policy priorities, and no parliamentary progress with the June 30 deadline three months away.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will the UK designate the IRGC a terrorist organization by June 30? " is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 43% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 43¢, the market collectively assigns a 43% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will the UK designate the IRGC a terrorist organization by June 30? " has generated $80.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 18, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will the UK designate the IRGC a terrorist organization by June 30? ," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will the UK designate the IRGC a terrorist organization by June 30? " is 43% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 43% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will the UK designate the IRGC a terrorist organization by June 30? " define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.