Will Israel strike Gaza on...?
$6,173,591 Vol.
OUTCOME
% CHANCE
December 17
$53,882 Vol.
<1%
December 17
$53,882 Vol.
<1%
December 20
$24,160 Vol.
33%
December 20
$24,160 Vol.
33%
December 21
$5,971 Vol.
44%
December 21
$5,971 Vol.
44%
December 22
$0 Vol.
43%
December 22
$0 Vol.
43%
December 23
$0 Vol.
48%
December 23
$0 Vol.
48%
December 24
$17 Vol.
49%
December 24
$17 Vol.
49%
December 25
$0 Vol.
43%
December 25
$0 Vol.
43%
December 26
$0 Vol.
45%
December 26
$0 Vol.
45%
December 27
$0 Vol.
45%
December 27
$0 Vol.
45%
December 28
$0 Vol.
45%
December 28
$0 Vol.
45%
December 29
$10 Vol.
50%
December 29
$10 Vol.
50%
December 30
$10 Vol.
34%
December 30
$10 Vol.
34%
December 31
$10 Vol.
35%
December 31
$10 Vol.
35%
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Gaza soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Gaza ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Gaza territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Gaza ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Gaza territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Created At: Oct 29, 2025, 2:05 AM UTC
Volume
$6,173,591End Date
Dec 31, 2025Created At
Oct 29, 2025, 2:05 AM UTCResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: Yes
Disputed
Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
$6,173,591 Vol.
Will Israel strike Gaza on...?
OUTCOME
% CHANCE
December 17
$53,882 Vol.
<1%
December 20
$24,160 Vol.
33%
December 21
$5,971 Vol.
44%
December 22
$0 Vol.
43%
December 23
$0 Vol.
48%
December 24
$17 Vol.
49%
December 25
$0 Vol.
43%
December 26
$0 Vol.
45%
December 27
$0 Vol.
45%
December 28
$0 Vol.
45%
December 29
$10 Vol.
50%
December 30
$10 Vol.
34%
December 31
$10 Vol.
35%
About
Volume
$6,173,591End Date
Dec 31, 2025Created At
Oct 29, 2025, 2:05 AM UTCResolver
0x65070BE91...Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.




Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.