Market icon

Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?

Dec 31

Howard Lutnick 28.7%

Kristi Noem 15.2%

Tulsi Gabbard 13.6%

Pam Bondi 14%

Polymarket

$12,521 Vol.

This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.

An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.

If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.

For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.

An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.

If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Volume
$12,521
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Created At
Feb 4, 2026, 5:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect. If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically. For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market. An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role. If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.

Beware of external links.

Market icon

Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?

Dec 31

Howard Lutnick 28.7%

Kristi Noem 15.2%

Tulsi Gabbard 13.6%

Pam Bondi 14%

Polymarket

$12,521 Vol.

Howard Lutnick

$992 Vol.

29%

Kristi Noem

$546 Vol.

15%

Tulsi Gabbard

$546 Vol.

14%

Pam Bondi

$705 Vol.

14%

None before 2027

$682 Vol.

10%

Lori Chavez-DeRemer

$438 Vol.

8%

Doug Collins

$359 Vol.

8%

Chris Wright

$425 Vol.

6%

Pete Hegseth

$369 Vol.

6%

Susie Wiles

$435 Vol.

5%

Linda McMahon

$425 Vol.

7%

Sean Duffy

$463 Vol.

4%

John Ratcliffe

$395 Vol.

4%

Jamieson Greer

$460 Vol.

4%

Brooke Rollins

$425 Vol.

4%

Kelly Loeffler

$421 Vol.

3%

Lee Zeldin

$425 Vol.

3%

Scott Bessent

$460 Vol.

3%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

$419 Vol.

2%

Russell T. Vought

$425 Vol.

1%

Mike Waltz

$495 Vol.

1%

Scott Turner

$431 Vol.

1%

Doug Burgum

$425 Vol.

6%

Marco Rubio

$392 Vol.

1%

J.D. Vance

$961 Vol.

<1%

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Beware of external links.