Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 82% implied probability of no Category 5 hurricane—defined by sustained winds of 157 mph or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale—making U.S. landfall before 2027, driven primarily by Colorado State University and NOAA preseason forecasts for below-normal 2026 Atlantic activity amid an expected El Niño emergence by summer. This follows the hyperactive 2025 season, which produced three Category 5 storms (Erin, Humberto, Melissa) but spared the U.S. mainland any hurricane landfalls, with Melissa striking Jamaica instead. El Niño conditions typically boost upper-level wind shear, hindering tropical cyclone formation and intensification, while historical data shows just four prior U.S. Category 5 landfalls since 1851 (1935, 1969, 1992, 2018). National Hurricane Center outlooks begin May 15, with potential updates if ENSO evolves unexpectedly.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
$132,478 Vol.
$132,478 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$132,478 Vol.
$132,478 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 82% implied probability of no Category 5 hurricane—defined by sustained winds of 157 mph or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale—making U.S. landfall before 2027, driven primarily by Colorado State University and NOAA preseason forecasts for below-normal 2026 Atlantic activity amid an expected El Niño emergence by summer. This follows the hyperactive 2025 season, which produced three Category 5 storms (Erin, Humberto, Melissa) but spared the U.S. mainland any hurricane landfalls, with Melissa striking Jamaica instead. El Niño conditions typically boost upper-level wind shear, hindering tropical cyclone formation and intensification, while historical data shows just four prior U.S. Category 5 landfalls since 1851 (1935, 1969, 1992, 2018). National Hurricane Center outlooks begin May 15, with potential updates if ENSO evolves unexpectedly.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Market Opened: Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
Volume
$132,478End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 82% implied probability of no Category 5 hurricane—defined by sustained winds of 157 mph or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale—making U.S. landfall before 2027, driven primarily by Colorado State University and NOAA preseason forecasts for below-normal 2026 Atlantic activity amid an expected El Niño emergence by summer. This follows the hyperactive 2025 season, which produced three Category 5 storms (Erin, Humberto, Melissa) but spared the U.S. mainland any hurricane landfalls, with Melissa striking Jamaica instead. El Niño conditions typically boost upper-level wind shear, hindering tropical cyclone formation and intensification, while historical data shows just four prior U.S. Category 5 landfalls since 1851 (1935, 1969, 1992, 2018). National Hurricane Center outlooks begin May 15, with potential updates if ENSO evolves unexpectedly.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Volume
$132,478End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 82% implied probability of no Category 5 hurricane—defined by sustained winds of 157 mph or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale—making U.S. landfall before 2027, driven primarily by Colorado State University and NOAA preseason forecasts for below-normal 2026 Atlantic activity amid an expected El Niño emergence by summer. This follows the hyperactive 2025 season, which produced three Category 5 storms (Erin, Humberto, Melissa) but spared the U.S. mainland any hurricane landfalls, with Melissa striking Jamaica instead. El Niño conditions typically boost upper-level wind shear, hindering tropical cyclone formation and intensification, while historical data shows just four prior U.S. Category 5 landfalls since 1851 (1935, 1969, 1992, 2018). National Hurricane Center outlooks begin May 15, with potential updates if ENSO evolves unexpectedly.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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