Who will leave Trump administration first?

Name: Who will leave Trump administration first?
Start: 2025-12-31T12:00:00.000Z
End: 2025-12-31T12:00:00.000Z

Mike Waltz 100.0%

Elon Musk <1%

Howard Lutnick <1%

Scott Bessent <1%

$605,493 Vol.

Dec 31, 2025

Elon Musk
$94,876 Vol.
No

Howard Lutnick
$25,170 Vol.
No

Scott Bessent
$26,733 Vol.
No

Tulsi Gabbard
$27,853 Vol.
No

Pete Hegseth
$58,333 Vol.
No

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
$35,378 Vol.
No

Linda McMahon
$7,814 Vol.
No

Marco Rubio
$21,387 Vol.
No

Mike Waltz
$163,277 Vol.
Yes

Susie Wiles
$23,761 Vol.
No

Pam Bondi
$53,316 Vol.
No

Karoline Leavitt
$14,800 Vol.
No

Peter Navarro
$39,488 Vol.
No

None in 2025
$13,307 Vol.
No

Rules

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual that it is announced will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration. If none of the listed individuals leave by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None in 2025”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, special government employees, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

Beware of external links.

Who will leave Trump administration first?

Mike Waltz 100.0%

Elon Musk <1%

Howard Lutnick <1%

Scott Bessent <1%

$605,493 Vol.

Dec 31, 2025

Elon Musk

$94,876 Vol.

Howard Lutnick

$25,170 Vol.

Scott Bessent

$26,733 Vol.

Tulsi Gabbard

$27,853 Vol.

Pete Hegseth

$58,333 Vol.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

$35,378 Vol.

Linda McMahon

$7,814 Vol.

Marco Rubio

$21,387 Vol.

Mike Waltz

$163,277 Vol.

Yes

Susie Wiles

$23,761 Vol.

Pam Bondi

$53,316 Vol.

Karoline Leavitt

$14,800 Vol.

Peter Navarro

$39,488 Vol.

None in 2025

$13,307 Vol.

About

Volume

$605,493

End Date

Dec 31, 2025

Created At

Apr 9, 2025, 3:56 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?

Susie Wiles out as White House Chief of Staff by March 31?

Will Trump pardon Stefan Brodie before 2027?

60%

Beware of external links.