President Donald Trump's pledge for weekly travel across battleground states to boost Republican turnout ahead of the November 3, 2026, midterm elections drives trader assessments of his visit probabilities. He kicked off the campaign trail with a rally in Des Moines, Iowa, on January 27, followed by a February 14 stop at Fort Bragg, North Carolina; a March 11 Tri-State area event spanning Ohio, Kentucky, and Indiana; and a March 24 visit to Memphis, Tennessee, to highlight a local safety initiative. With primaries underway—Arkansas, North Carolina, and Texas on March 3—traders price higher odds for swing states like Michigan, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada, and Wisconsin hosting future rallies, based on competitive Senate races and historical 2024 patterns, though official trips such as the late April King Charles state visit remain Washington-focused.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$194,758 Vol.

Pennsylvania
85%

Arizona
93%

New Jersey
81%

New York
85%

Idaho
89%

New Hampshire
77%

Vermont
73%

Virginia
81%

Alabama
66%

Alaska
66%

Wisconsin
64%

California
62%

Montana
60%

Missouri
52%

Oklahoma
51%

North Dakota
51%

West Virginia
50%

Indiana
49%

Connecticut
49%

Utah
49%

South Dakota
48%

Rhode Island
46%

South Carolina
42%

Oregon
4%

Hawaii
52%

Illinois
46%

Maine
51%

Massachusetts
51%

Minnesota
51%

Nebraska
52%

New Mexico
48%

Washington
47%

Arkansas
51%

Colorado
38%

Kansas
51%

Louisiana
49%

Mississippi
38%

Nevada
72%

Wyoming
41%
$194,758 Vol.

Pennsylvania
85%

Arizona
93%

New Jersey
81%

New York
85%

Idaho
89%

New Hampshire
77%

Vermont
73%

Virginia
81%

Alabama
66%

Alaska
66%

Wisconsin
64%

California
62%

Montana
60%

Missouri
52%

Oklahoma
51%

North Dakota
51%

West Virginia
50%

Indiana
49%

Connecticut
49%

Utah
49%

South Dakota
48%

Rhode Island
46%

South Carolina
42%

Oregon
4%

Hawaii
52%

Illinois
46%

Maine
51%

Massachusetts
51%

Minnesota
51%

Nebraska
52%

New Mexico
48%

Washington
47%

Arkansas
51%

Colorado
38%

Kansas
51%

Louisiana
49%

Mississippi
38%

Nevada
72%

Wyoming
41%
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial territory of the listed state. Whether or not Trump enters the state’s airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from the government of the United States of America, official information from Trump, or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g., https://twitter.com/POTUS); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Dec 1, 2025, 10:30 AM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial territory of the listed state. Whether or not Trump enters the state’s airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from the government of the United States of America, official information from Trump, or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g., https://twitter.com/POTUS); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...President Donald Trump's pledge for weekly travel across battleground states to boost Republican turnout ahead of the November 3, 2026, midterm elections drives trader assessments of his visit probabilities. He kicked off the campaign trail with a rally in Des Moines, Iowa, on January 27, followed by a February 14 stop at Fort Bragg, North Carolina; a March 11 Tri-State area event spanning Ohio, Kentucky, and Indiana; and a March 24 visit to Memphis, Tennessee, to highlight a local safety initiative. With primaries underway—Arkansas, North Carolina, and Texas on March 3—traders price higher odds for swing states like Michigan, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada, and Wisconsin hosting future rallies, based on competitive Senate races and historical 2024 patterns, though official trips such as the late April King Charles state visit remain Washington-focused.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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