Market icon
Tech·AI

Which company has the top AI model end of March? (Style Control On)

Market icon
Tech·AI

Which company has the top AI model end of March? (Style Control On)

Ended: Mar 31

Apr 30

Jun 30

Ended: Mar 31

Apr 30

Jun 30

Anthropic 100.0%

Google <1%

OpenAI <1%

Z.ai <1%

Polymarket

$1,067,526 Vol.

Anthropic 100.0%

Google <1%

OpenAI <1%

Z.ai <1%

Polymarket

$1,067,526 Vol.

Market icon

Google

$122,247 Vol.

No

Market icon

OpenAI

$127,790 Vol.

No

Market icon

Z.ai

$60,235 Vol.

No

Market icon

DeepSeek

$114,380 Vol.

No

Market icon

Mistral

$228,435 Vol.

No

Market icon

Anthropic

$73,618 Vol.

Yes

Market icon

Alibaba

$98,898 Vol.

No

Market icon

xAI

$73,571 Vol.

No

Market icon

Moonshot

$64,992 Vol.

No

Market icon

Meituan

$103,360 Vol.

No

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market. If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No") The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to Anthropic holding the top AI model as of March 31, 2026, driven by its Claude Opus 4.6-thinking variant leading the LMArena text leaderboard in the Style Control On category with an Elo score of 1504—well ahead of the second-place Claude Opus 4.6 at 1500 and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview at 1494. This positioning stems from Anthropic's aggressive March rollout, including Opus 4.6, Sonnet 4.6, a 1M-token context window, and advanced features like voice mode and skills API, solidifying its edge in benchmarks for math, coding, and creative tasks amid fierce competition from OpenAI and Google. While dominant, a surprise competitor model release or leaderboard recount in the final hours could theoretically challenge it, though traders see negligible risk given the vote margin from over 13,000 battles.

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.

If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$1,067,526
End Date
Mar 31, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 2, 2025, 5:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market. If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No") The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market. If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No") The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to Anthropic holding the top AI model as of March 31, 2026, driven by its Claude Opus 4.6-thinking variant leading the LMArena text leaderboard in the Style Control On category with an Elo score of 1504—well ahead of the second-place Claude Opus 4.6 at 1500 and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview at 1494. This positioning stems from Anthropic's aggressive March rollout, including Opus 4.6, Sonnet 4.6, a 1M-token context window, and advanced features like voice mode and skills API, solidifying its edge in benchmarks for math, coding, and creative tasks amid fierce competition from OpenAI and Google. While dominant, a surprise competitor model release or leaderboard recount in the final hours could theoretically challenge it, though traders see negligible risk given the vote margin from over 13,000 battles.

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.

If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$1,067,526
End Date
Mar 31, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 2, 2025, 5:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market. If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No") The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

Related

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Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?

41%
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Will a dLLM be the top AI model before 2027?

10%

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Which company has the top AI model end of March? (Style Control On)" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 10 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Anthropic" at 100%, followed by "Google" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Which company has the top AI model end of March? (Style Control On)" has generated $1.1 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 2, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Which company has the top AI model end of March? (Style Control On)," browse the 10 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Which company has the top AI model end of March? (Style Control On)" is "Anthropic" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Google" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Which company has the top AI model end of March? (Style Control On)" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.