Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7, released on April 16, 2026, has propelled trader consensus to a 95% implied probability of leading the coding AI model rankings by month's end, topping key benchmarks like SWE-bench, LiveCodeBench, and LMSYS Chatbot Arena's coding subcategory with scores surpassing OpenAI's GPT-5.4 by over 6 points in agentic tasks. This builds on Claude Opus 4.6's prior dominance in real-world GitHub issue resolution and multi-step programming, enhanced by neurosymbolic techniques in Claude Code for superior tool use and reasoning. While strong, the lead could be challenged by last-minute model updates from OpenAI or Google Gemini ahead of the April 30 resolution, or shifts in arena Elo scores from user votes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 95%
OpenAI 5.0%
DeepSeek <1%
Alibaba <1%
$144,460 Vol.
$144,460 Vol.

Anthropic
95%

OpenAI
5%

DeepSeek
1%

Alibaba
<1%

Z.ai
<1%

<1%

xAI
<1%

Moonshot
<1%

ByteDance
<1%

Baidu
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Meituan
<1%

Amazon
<1%
Anthropic 95%
OpenAI 5.0%
DeepSeek <1%
Alibaba <1%
$144,460 Vol.
$144,460 Vol.

Anthropic
95%

OpenAI
5%

DeepSeek
1%

Alibaba
<1%

Z.ai
<1%

<1%

xAI
<1%

Moonshot
<1%

ByteDance
<1%

Baidu
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Meituan
<1%

Amazon
<1%
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Coding" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Market Opened: Apr 2, 2026, 5:39 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Coding" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7, released on April 16, 2026, has propelled trader consensus to a 95% implied probability of leading the coding AI model rankings by month's end, topping key benchmarks like SWE-bench, LiveCodeBench, and LMSYS Chatbot Arena's coding subcategory with scores surpassing OpenAI's GPT-5.4 by over 6 points in agentic tasks. This builds on Claude Opus 4.6's prior dominance in real-world GitHub issue resolution and multi-step programming, enhanced by neurosymbolic techniques in Claude Code for superior tool use and reasoning. While strong, the lead could be challenged by last-minute model updates from OpenAI or Google Gemini ahead of the April 30 resolution, or shifts in arena Elo scores from user votes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated



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