Market icon
Politics·Homeland Security

When will the DHS shutdown end?

Market icon
Politics·Homeland Security

When will the DHS shutdown end?

Mar 31

Apr 30

Mar 31

Apr 30

After March 31 63.2%

March 28-31 30.5%

March 24-27 6.2%

Polymarket

$1,527,736 Vol.

After March 31 63.2%

March 28-31 30.5%

March 24-27 6.2%

Polymarket

$1,527,736 Vol.

March 24-27

$165,748 Vol.

6%

March 28-31

$71,004 Vol.

46%

After March 31

$1,055,466 Vol.

42%

This market will resolve to the calendar date range (ET) of the end date of the Department of Homeland Security shutdown which began on February 14, 2026. The end date of the shutdown will be determined by the date on which the funding bill required to reopen the Department of Homeland Security is signed by the President or otherwise enacted. The announcement of an impending reopen will not qualify. The resolution sources for this market will be information from official U.S. Government sources and a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on the DHS shutdown resolution favors "After March 31" at 58.5%, reflecting stalled bipartisan negotiations on full-year appropriations amid partisan divides over spending cuts and border security priorities. House Republicans' demands for deeper reductions clashed with Democratic resistance, prompting short-term continuing resolutions (CRs) that have repeatedly kicked the can forward, as seen in the latest March 22 CR extending funding through early next week. The 35% on "March 28-31" anticipates a possible last-minute compromise before quarter-end pressures mount, while "March 24-27" at 4.8% sees little traction due to slim time for floor votes amid whip count challenges and leadership tensions. Upcoming House and Senate votes on a minibus package could shift odds if procedural hurdles clear.

This market will resolve to the calendar date range (ET) of the end date of the Department of Homeland Security shutdown which began on February 14, 2026.

The end date of the shutdown will be determined by the date on which the funding bill required to reopen the Department of Homeland Security is signed by the President or otherwise enacted. The announcement of an impending reopen will not qualify.

The resolution sources for this market will be information from official U.S. Government sources and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,527,736
End Date
Mar 31, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 15, 2026, 2:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve to the calendar date range (ET) of the end date of the Department of Homeland Security shutdown which began on February 14, 2026. The end date of the shutdown will be determined by the date on which the funding bill required to reopen the Department of Homeland Security is signed by the President or otherwise enacted. The announcement of an impending reopen will not qualify. The resolution sources for this market will be information from official U.S. Government sources and a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on the DHS shutdown resolution favors "After March 31" at 58.5%, reflecting stalled bipartisan negotiations on full-year appropriations amid partisan divides over spending cuts and border security priorities. House Republicans' demands for deeper reductions clashed with Democratic resistance, prompting short-term continuing resolutions (CRs) that have repeatedly kicked the can forward, as seen in the latest March 22 CR extending funding through early next week. The 35% on "March 28-31" anticipates a possible last-minute compromise before quarter-end pressures mount, while "March 24-27" at 4.8% sees little traction due to slim time for floor votes amid whip count challenges and leadership tensions. Upcoming House and Senate votes on a minibus package could shift odds if procedural hurdles clear.

Trader consensus on the DHS shutdown resolution favors "After March 31" at 58.5%, reflecting stalled bipartisan negotiations on full-year appropriations amid partisan divides over spending cuts and border security priorities. House Republicans' demands for deeper reductions clashed with Democratic resistance, prompting short-term continuing resolutions (CRs) that have repeatedly kicked the can forward, as seen in the latest March 22 CR extending funding through early next week. The 35% on "March 28-31" anticipates a possible last-minute compromise before quarter-end pressures mount, while "March 24-27" at 4.8% sees little traction due to slim time for floor votes amid whip count challenges and leadership tensions. Upcoming House and Senate votes on a minibus package could shift odds if procedural hurdles clear.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"When will the DHS shutdown end?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 13 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "March 28-31" at 46%, followed by "After March 31" at 42%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 46¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 46% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "When will the DHS shutdown end?" has generated $1.5 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 15, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "When will the DHS shutdown end?," browse the 13 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "When will the DHS shutdown end?" is "March 28-31" at 46%, meaning the market assigns a 46% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "After March 31" at 42%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "When will the DHS shutdown end?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.