Congress cleared a $1.2 trillion minibus spending package on March 22—including full-year FY2024 appropriations for DHS—promptly signed by President Biden on March 23, averting a partial government shutdown and driving trader consensus toward an 81.9% implied probability that any DHS funding lapse threat resolves after March 31. This bipartisan deal, forged amid House GOP hardliner demands for spending cuts and procedural hurdles like failed prior votes, collapsed near-term end-date odds to 0.1% for March 24-27 and 12.7% for March 28-31, reflecting skin-in-the-game assessments of restored funding stability through September. Remaining defense and labor-Health bills pose tail risks, but DHS faces no immediate deadlines.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedWhen will the DHS shutdown end?
When will the DHS shutdown end?
After March 31 82.3%
March 28-31 13.2%
March 24-27 <1%
$1,561,962 Vol.
$1,561,962 Vol.
March 24-27
<1%
March 28-31
13%
After March 31
82%
After March 31 82.3%
March 28-31 13.2%
March 24-27 <1%
$1,561,962 Vol.
$1,561,962 Vol.
March 24-27
<1%
March 28-31
13%
After March 31
82%
The end date of the shutdown will be determined by the date on which the funding bill required to reopen the Department of Homeland Security is signed by the President or otherwise enacted. The announcement of an impending reopen will not qualify.
The resolution sources for this market will be information from official U.S. Government sources and a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Feb 15, 2026, 2:09 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...The end date of the shutdown will be determined by the date on which the funding bill required to reopen the Department of Homeland Security is signed by the President or otherwise enacted. The announcement of an impending reopen will not qualify.
The resolution sources for this market will be information from official U.S. Government sources and a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Congress cleared a $1.2 trillion minibus spending package on March 22—including full-year FY2024 appropriations for DHS—promptly signed by President Biden on March 23, averting a partial government shutdown and driving trader consensus toward an 81.9% implied probability that any DHS funding lapse threat resolves after March 31. This bipartisan deal, forged amid House GOP hardliner demands for spending cuts and procedural hurdles like failed prior votes, collapsed near-term end-date odds to 0.1% for March 24-27 and 12.7% for March 28-31, reflecting skin-in-the-game assessments of restored funding stability through September. Remaining defense and labor-Health bills pose tail risks, but DHS faces no immediate deadlines.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated



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