Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

When will Israel announce ceasefire?

October 8 100.0%

October 7 <1%

October 9 <1%

October 10 <1%

$11,151,904 Vol.

October 7
$1,741 Vol.
No

October 8
$10,249,058 Vol.
Yes

October 9
$356,525 Vol.
No

October 10
$86,049 Vol.
No

October 11
$31,659 Vol.
No

October 12
$55,146 Vol.
No

October 13
$28,553 Vol.
No

October 14
$20,769 Vol.
No

October 15
$22,260 Vol.
No

October 16
$19,009 Vol.
No

October 17
$21,909 Vol.
No

October 18
$18,333 Vol.
No

October 19
$16,268 Vol.
No

October 20
$17,328 Vol.
No

October 21
$16,531 Vol.
No

October 22
$16,056 Vol.
No

October 23
$15,851 Vol.
No

October 24
$15,288 Vol.
No

October 25
$13,844 Vol.
No

October 26
$13,268 Vol.
No

October 27
$12,801 Vol.
No

October 28
$14,002 Vol.
No

October 29
$15,254 Vol.
No

October 30
$13,262 Vol.
No

October 31
$20,035 Vol.
No

None in October
$41,102 Vol.
No

Rules

This market will resolve according to the next date (ET) that Israel officially announces it has agreed to a ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between itself and Hamas. If Israel does not officially announce that it has agreed to a ceasefire by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None in October”. If Israel officially announces an agreement before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterwards. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market. A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count. This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from Israel, however a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating Israel has announced an official ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas has been reached will suffice.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

Beware of external links.

When will Israel announce ceasefire?

October 8 100.0%

October 7 <1%

October 9 <1%

October 10 <1%

$11,151,904 Vol.

October 7

$1,741 Vol.

October 8

$10,249,058 Vol.

Yes

October 9

$356,525 Vol.

October 10

$86,049 Vol.

October 11

$31,659 Vol.

October 12

$55,146 Vol.

October 13

$28,553 Vol.

October 14

$20,769 Vol.

October 15

$22,260 Vol.

October 16

$19,009 Vol.

October 17

$21,909 Vol.

October 18

$18,333 Vol.

October 19

$16,268 Vol.

October 20

$17,328 Vol.

October 21

$16,531 Vol.

October 22

$16,056 Vol.

October 23

$15,851 Vol.

October 24

$15,288 Vol.

October 25

$13,844 Vol.

October 26

$13,268 Vol.

October 27

$12,801 Vol.

October 28

$14,002 Vol.

October 29

$15,254 Vol.

October 30

$13,262 Vol.

October 31

$20,035 Vol.

None in October

$41,102 Vol.

About

Volume

$11,151,904

Created At

Oct 7, 2025, 11:33 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30?

40%

Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by June 30?

43%

Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?

47%

Beware of external links.