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Politics·Venezuela

US forces enter Venezuela again by...?

Market icon
Politics·Venezuela

US forces enter Venezuela again by...?

Jun 30

Jun 30

$1,255,884 Vol.

Jan 31, 2026
Polymarket

$1,255,884 Vol.

Polymarket

March 31

$2,432 Vol.

1%

June 30

$173,363 Vol.

14%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Venezuela at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count. US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count. Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US special forces conducted a targeted military operation in Venezuela on January 3, 2026, capturing President Nicolás Maduro amid strikes on infrastructure, the first such US intervention since Panama in 1989; the Defense Department subsequently confirmed no ongoing troop presence on Venezuelan soil. Trader sentiment reflects this recent entry as the baseline event, with no verified plans for re-entry announced in the past 30 days despite regional naval buildup and humanitarian aid shipments exceeding six tons of medical supplies. Maduro now faces US drug trafficking charges, with a judge rejecting dismissal on March 26; President Trump reiterated hemispheric priorities on March 27, hinting at Cuba amid stalled governance transition and coalition pressures in Caracas. Absent escalation signals like troop deployments or airstrikes, odds hinge on diplomatic breakthroughs or unrest triggering renewed military action before resolution.

US special forces conducted a targeted military operation in Venezuela on January 3, 2026, capturing President Nicolás Maduro amid strikes on infrastructure, the first such US intervention since Panama in 1989; the Defense Department subsequently confirmed no ongoing troop presence on Venezuelan soil. Trader sentiment reflects this recent entry as the baseline event, with no verified plans for re-entry announced in the past 30 days despite regional naval buildup and humanitarian aid shipments exceeding six tons of medical supplies. Maduro now faces US drug trafficking charges, with a judge rejecting dismissal on March 26; President Trump reiterated hemispheric priorities on March 27, hinting at Cuba amid stalled governance transition and coalition pressures in Caracas. Absent escalation signals like troop deployments or airstrikes, odds hinge on diplomatic breakthroughs or unrest triggering renewed military action before resolution.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Venezuela at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count. US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count. Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US special forces conducted a targeted military operation in Venezuela on January 3, 2026, capturing President Nicolás Maduro amid strikes on infrastructure, the first such US intervention since Panama in 1989; the Defense Department subsequently confirmed no ongoing troop presence on Venezuelan soil. Trader sentiment reflects this recent entry as the baseline event, with no verified plans for re-entry announced in the past 30 days despite regional naval buildup and humanitarian aid shipments exceeding six tons of medical supplies. Maduro now faces US drug trafficking charges, with a judge rejecting dismissal on March 26; President Trump reiterated hemispheric priorities on March 27, hinting at Cuba amid stalled governance transition and coalition pressures in Caracas. Absent escalation signals like troop deployments or airstrikes, odds hinge on diplomatic breakthroughs or unrest triggering renewed military action before resolution.

US special forces conducted a targeted military operation in Venezuela on January 3, 2026, capturing President Nicolás Maduro amid strikes on infrastructure, the first such US intervention since Panama in 1989; the Defense Department subsequently confirmed no ongoing troop presence on Venezuelan soil. Trader sentiment reflects this recent entry as the baseline event, with no verified plans for re-entry announced in the past 30 days despite regional naval buildup and humanitarian aid shipments exceeding six tons of medical supplies. Maduro now faces US drug trafficking charges, with a judge rejecting dismissal on March 26; President Trump reiterated hemispheric priorities on March 27, hinting at Cuba amid stalled governance transition and coalition pressures in Caracas. Absent escalation signals like troop deployments or airstrikes, odds hinge on diplomatic breakthroughs or unrest triggering renewed military action before resolution.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"US forces enter Venezuela again by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "June 30" at 14%, followed by "March 31" at 1%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 14¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 14% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "US forces enter Venezuela again by...?" has generated $1.3 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 3, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "US forces enter Venezuela again by...?," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "US forces enter Venezuela again by...?" is "June 30" at 14%, meaning the market assigns a 14% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "March 31" at 1%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "US forces enter Venezuela again by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.