US special forces conducted a precision raid into Venezuela on January 3, 2026, capturing President Nicolás Maduro at Fuerte Tiuna military base amid airstrikes on Caracas, forcibly removing the long-time leader and marking the first such US intervention in the hemisphere since Panama in 1989. Forces have since dispersed, with trader consensus pricing low odds on re-entry—such as 14% for by June 30—reflecting stabilized interim governance under Diosdado Cabello's allies, resumed US-Venezuela diplomatic ties on March 6, and a US naval buildup in the Caribbean without new ground incursions. Surprise US commander visits and resource control aims persist amid legitimacy questions, but focus has shifted to Cuba pressures and regional de-escalation signals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$1,255,884 Vol.
Jan 31, 2026
March 31
1%
June 30
14%
$1,255,884 Vol.
March 31
$2,432 Vol.
1%
June 30
$173,363 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Venezuela at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US special forces conducted a precision raid into Venezuela on January 3, 2026, capturing President Nicolás Maduro at Fuerte Tiuna military base amid airstrikes on Caracas, forcibly removing the long-time leader and marking the first such US intervention in the hemisphere since Panama in 1989. Forces have since dispersed, with trader consensus pricing low odds on re-entry—such as 14% for by June 30—reflecting stabilized interim governance under Diosdado Cabello's allies, resumed US-Venezuela diplomatic ties on March 6, and a US naval buildup in the Caribbean without new ground incursions. Surprise US commander visits and resource control aims persist amid legitimacy questions, but focus has shifted to Cuba pressures and regional de-escalation signals.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Venezuela at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Feb 19, 2026, 4:12 PM ET
Volume
$1,255,884End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Feb 19, 2026, 4:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Venezuela at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US special forces conducted a precision raid into Venezuela on January 3, 2026, capturing President Nicolás Maduro at Fuerte Tiuna military base amid airstrikes on Caracas, forcibly removing the long-time leader and marking the first such US intervention in the hemisphere since Panama in 1989. Forces have since dispersed, with trader consensus pricing low odds on re-entry—such as 14% for by June 30—reflecting stabilized interim governance under Diosdado Cabello's allies, resumed US-Venezuela diplomatic ties on March 6, and a US naval buildup in the Caribbean without new ground incursions. Surprise US commander visits and resource control aims persist amid legitimacy questions, but focus has shifted to Cuba pressures and regional de-escalation signals.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Venezuela at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,255,884End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Feb 19, 2026, 4:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US special forces conducted a precision raid into Venezuela on January 3, 2026, capturing President Nicolás Maduro at Fuerte Tiuna military base amid airstrikes on Caracas, forcibly removing the long-time leader and marking the first such US intervention in the hemisphere since Panama in 1989. Forces have since dispersed, with trader consensus pricing low odds on re-entry—such as 14% for by June 30—reflecting stabilized interim governance under Diosdado Cabello's allies, resumed US-Venezuela diplomatic ties on March 6, and a US naval buildup in the Caribbean without new ground incursions. Surprise US commander visits and resource control aims persist amid legitimacy questions, but focus has shifted to Cuba pressures and regional de-escalation signals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions