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Trump x Ukraine mineral deal signed before May?

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Trump x Ukraine mineral deal signed before May?

>99% chance
Polymarket

$6,833,524 Vol.

>99% chance
Polymarket

$6,833,524 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States and Ukraine enact or sign any deal between March 31 and April 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, that explicitly involves Ukrainian minerals. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

Qualifying mineral deals include but are not limited partnerships involving minerals, future rights to mineral resources, mining rights, or any other form of cooperation related to Ukrainian minerals.

For the purpose of this market "enacted" means that the agreement has been officially signed or otherwise formally adopted by both parties within the market’s time frame. A qualifying agreement which is signed by both parties will qualify, regardless of whether it is later ratified by relevant bodies (U.S. Congress, Verkhovna Rada, etc.).

Announcements of an agreement will not alone qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$6,833,524
End Date
Apr 30, 2025
Market Opened
Apr 1, 2025, 10:54 AM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States and Ukraine enact or sign any deal between March 31 and April 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, that explicitly involves Ukrainian minerals. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying mineral deals include but are not limited partnerships involving minerals, future rights to mineral resources, mining rights, or any other form of cooperation related to Ukrainian minerals. For the purpose of this market "enacted" means that the agreement has been officially signed or otherwise formally adopted by both parties within the market’s time frame. A qualifying agreement which is signed by both parties will qualify, regardless of whether it is later ratified by relevant bodies (U.S. Congress, Verkhovna Rada, etc.). Announcements of an agreement will not alone qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.

Outcome proposed: Yes

Disputed

Outcome proposed: Yes

Disputed

Final outcome: Yes

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States and Ukraine enact or sign any deal between March 31 and April 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, that explicitly involves Ukrainian minerals. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

Qualifying mineral deals include but are not limited partnerships involving minerals, future rights to mineral resources, mining rights, or any other form of cooperation related to Ukrainian minerals.

For the purpose of this market "enacted" means that the agreement has been officially signed or otherwise formally adopted by both parties within the market’s time frame. A qualifying agreement which is signed by both parties will qualify, regardless of whether it is later ratified by relevant bodies (U.S. Congress, Verkhovna Rada, etc.).

Announcements of an agreement will not alone qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$6,833,524
End Date
Apr 30, 2025
Market Opened
Apr 1, 2025, 10:54 AM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States and Ukraine enact or sign any deal between March 31 and April 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, that explicitly involves Ukrainian minerals. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying mineral deals include but are not limited partnerships involving minerals, future rights to mineral resources, mining rights, or any other form of cooperation related to Ukrainian minerals. For the purpose of this market "enacted" means that the agreement has been officially signed or otherwise formally adopted by both parties within the market’s time frame. A qualifying agreement which is signed by both parties will qualify, regardless of whether it is later ratified by relevant bodies (U.S. Congress, Verkhovna Rada, etc.). Announcements of an agreement will not alone qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.

Outcome proposed: Yes

Disputed

Outcome proposed: Yes

Disputed

Final outcome: Yes

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Trump x Ukraine mineral deal signed before May?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 100% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 100¢, the market collectively assigns a 100% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Trump x Ukraine mineral deal signed before May?" has generated $6.8 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 1, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Trump x Ukraine mineral deal signed before May?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Trump x Ukraine mineral deal signed before May?" is 100% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 100% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Trump x Ukraine mineral deal signed before May?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.