Trader consensus on Polymarket favors Rafael López Aliaga at 44% implied probability to finish second in Peru's April 2026 presidential election first round, driven by recent polling surges positioning him just behind frontrunner Antauro Humala. The latest IEP survey from early November shows Humala at 17%, López Aliaga at 13%, and Keiko Fujimori at 10%, reflecting López Aliaga's gains among right-wing voters amid ongoing security concerns and public dissatisfaction with President Dina Boluarte's administration. Fujimori holds steady in third via her established conservative base but trails due to lingering corruption trial shadows. Lower probabilities for candidates like Alfonso López Chau and Jorge Nieto stem from fragmented leftist support and weaker regional polling. With candidate registration ongoing and the two-round system advancing the top two to a June runoff, upcoming surveys and campaign announcements could shift this closely contested positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedRafael López Aliaga 44%
Keiko Fujimori 24%
Alfonso López Chau 10%
Jorge Nieto 8.1%

Rafael López Aliaga
44%

Keiko Fujimori
24%

Alfonso López Chau
10%

Jorge Nieto
8%

Roberto Sánchez Palomino
7%

Wolfgang Grozo
4%

Mario Vizcarra
4%

Carlos Álvarez
4%

César Acuña
3%

Yonhy Lescano
2%

George Forsyth
2%

Rafael Belaúnde Llosa
2%

Marisol Pérez Tello
2%

Roberto Chiabra
2%

Fiorella Molinelli
1%

Ricardo Belmont
1%

José Williams
1%

Mesías Guevara
1%

Enrique Valderrama
1%

Vladimir Cerrón
1%

Fernando Olivera
1%

José Luna
1%

Carlos Espá
<1%
Rafael López Aliaga 44%
Keiko Fujimori 24%
Alfonso López Chau 10%
Jorge Nieto 8.1%

Rafael López Aliaga
44%

Keiko Fujimori
24%

Alfonso López Chau
10%

Jorge Nieto
8%

Roberto Sánchez Palomino
7%

Wolfgang Grozo
4%

Mario Vizcarra
4%

Carlos Álvarez
4%

César Acuña
3%

Yonhy Lescano
2%

George Forsyth
2%

Rafael Belaúnde Llosa
2%

Marisol Pérez Tello
2%

Roberto Chiabra
2%

Fiorella Molinelli
1%

Ricardo Belmont
1%

José Williams
1%

Mesías Guevara
1%

Enrique Valderrama
1%

Vladimir Cerrón
1%

Fernando Olivera
1%

José Luna
1%

Carlos Espá
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
Market Opened: Mar 20, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors Rafael López Aliaga at 44% implied probability to finish second in Peru's April 2026 presidential election first round, driven by recent polling surges positioning him just behind frontrunner Antauro Humala. The latest IEP survey from early November shows Humala at 17%, López Aliaga at 13%, and Keiko Fujimori at 10%, reflecting López Aliaga's gains among right-wing voters amid ongoing security concerns and public dissatisfaction with President Dina Boluarte's administration. Fujimori holds steady in third via her established conservative base but trails due to lingering corruption trial shadows. Lower probabilities for candidates like Alfonso López Chau and Jorge Nieto stem from fragmented leftist support and weaker regional polling. With candidate registration ongoing and the two-round system advancing the top two to a June runoff, upcoming surveys and campaign announcements could shift this closely contested positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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