Trader consensus slightly favors Democrats at 54% in Ohio's 2026 special U.S. Senate election to fill the remainder of J.D. Vance's term, driven by recent polls showing former Sen. Sherrod Brown narrowly leading appointed incumbent Jon Husted amid voter concerns over healthcare costs. The race remains closely contested in this battleground state, with independents split and Republicans facing headwinds from a double polling blow last week, reversing earlier leads. Brown's experience and fundraising edge counter Husted's incumbency advantage, while national midterm trends favoring the out-party add uncertainty. Primaries this spring and the November general could tip probabilities through endorsements, turnout in swing areas, or economic shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$60,900 Vol.
$60,900 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat
54%
Republican
45%
$60,900 Vol.
$60,900 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat
$34,375 Vol.
54%
Republican
$26,525 Vol.
45%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ohio U.S. Senate special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus slightly favors Democrats at 54% in Ohio's 2026 special U.S. Senate election to fill the remainder of J.D. Vance's term, driven by recent polls showing former Sen. Sherrod Brown narrowly leading appointed incumbent Jon Husted amid voter concerns over healthcare costs. The race remains closely contested in this battleground state, with independents split and Republicans facing headwinds from a double polling blow last week, reversing earlier leads. Brown's experience and fundraising edge counter Husted's incumbency advantage, while national midterm trends favoring the out-party add uncertainty. Primaries this spring and the November general could tip probabilities through endorsements, turnout in swing areas, or economic shifts.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ohio U.S. Senate special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 4:38 PM ET
Volume
$60,900End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 4:38 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ohio U.S. Senate special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus slightly favors Democrats at 54% in Ohio's 2026 special U.S. Senate election to fill the remainder of J.D. Vance's term, driven by recent polls showing former Sen. Sherrod Brown narrowly leading appointed incumbent Jon Husted amid voter concerns over healthcare costs. The race remains closely contested in this battleground state, with independents split and Republicans facing headwinds from a double polling blow last week, reversing earlier leads. Brown's experience and fundraising edge counter Husted's incumbency advantage, while national midterm trends favoring the out-party add uncertainty. Primaries this spring and the November general could tip probabilities through endorsements, turnout in swing areas, or economic shifts.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ohio U.S. Senate special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$60,900End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 4:38 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus slightly favors Democrats at 54% in Ohio's 2026 special U.S. Senate election to fill the remainder of J.D. Vance's term, driven by recent polls showing former Sen. Sherrod Brown narrowly leading appointed incumbent Jon Husted amid voter concerns over healthcare costs. The race remains closely contested in this battleground state, with independents split and Republicans facing headwinds from a double polling blow last week, reversing earlier leads. Brown's experience and fundraising edge counter Husted's incumbency advantage, while national midterm trends favoring the out-party add uncertainty. Primaries this spring and the November general could tip probabilities through endorsements, turnout in swing areas, or economic shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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