Recent polls from mid-March, including Quantus Insights showing appointed Republican Sen. Jon Husted up 46%-44% over former Sen. Sherrod Brown but Democratic-leaning surveys like EMC Research giving Brown a 51%-47% edge, have produced averages favoring Brown by about 1 point, fueling trader consensus pricing Democrats at 54% in this tight special election triggered by J.D. Vance's vice presidential win. Ohio's battleground status, GOP statewide lean from 2024, and Husted's interim incumbency keep the race competitive despite Brown's fundraising superiority ($9.9 million cash on hand vs. Husted's $6 million). Upcoming May 5 primaries, national midterm environment, endorsements, and economic shifts in swing state voter priorities could widen the margin.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$60,900 Vol.
$60,900 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat
54%
Republican
45%
$60,900 Vol.
$60,900 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat
$34,375 Vol.
54%
Republican
$26,525 Vol.
45%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ohio U.S. Senate special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Recent polls from mid-March, including Quantus Insights showing appointed Republican Sen. Jon Husted up 46%-44% over former Sen. Sherrod Brown but Democratic-leaning surveys like EMC Research giving Brown a 51%-47% edge, have produced averages favoring Brown by about 1 point, fueling trader consensus pricing Democrats at 54% in this tight special election triggered by J.D. Vance's vice presidential win. Ohio's battleground status, GOP statewide lean from 2024, and Husted's interim incumbency keep the race competitive despite Brown's fundraising superiority ($9.9 million cash on hand vs. Husted's $6 million). Upcoming May 5 primaries, national midterm environment, endorsements, and economic shifts in swing state voter priorities could widen the margin.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ohio U.S. Senate special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 4:38 PM ET
Volume
$60,900End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 4:38 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ohio U.S. Senate special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Recent polls from mid-March, including Quantus Insights showing appointed Republican Sen. Jon Husted up 46%-44% over former Sen. Sherrod Brown but Democratic-leaning surveys like EMC Research giving Brown a 51%-47% edge, have produced averages favoring Brown by about 1 point, fueling trader consensus pricing Democrats at 54% in this tight special election triggered by J.D. Vance's vice presidential win. Ohio's battleground status, GOP statewide lean from 2024, and Husted's interim incumbency keep the race competitive despite Brown's fundraising superiority ($9.9 million cash on hand vs. Husted's $6 million). Upcoming May 5 primaries, national midterm environment, endorsements, and economic shifts in swing state voter priorities could widen the margin.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ohio U.S. Senate special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$60,900End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 4:38 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polls from mid-March, including Quantus Insights showing appointed Republican Sen. Jon Husted up 46%-44% over former Sen. Sherrod Brown but Democratic-leaning surveys like EMC Research giving Brown a 51%-47% edge, have produced averages favoring Brown by about 1 point, fueling trader consensus pricing Democrats at 54% in this tight special election triggered by J.D. Vance's vice presidential win. Ohio's battleground status, GOP statewide lean from 2024, and Husted's interim incumbency keep the race competitive despite Brown's fundraising superiority ($9.9 million cash on hand vs. Husted's $6 million). Upcoming May 5 primaries, national midterm environment, endorsements, and economic shifts in swing state voter priorities could widen the margin.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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