Market icon
Politics·DHS

Number of US Flights Delayed March 30?

Market icon
Politics·DHS

Number of US Flights Delayed March 30?

Mar 29

Mar 30

Mar 31

Mar 29

Mar 30

Mar 31

$11,283 Vol.

Polymarket

$11,283 Vol.

5,000-5,500

$2,611 Vol.

99%

5,500-6,000

$643 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve based on the "Total delays within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on FlightAware when it is checked at 12:00 PM ET on the day after March 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the "Total delays within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on the "FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday" table when checked at the specified time. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to the lowest available bracket.Preliminary FlightAware data tallied approximately 5,200 US flight delays on March 30—arrivals 15+ minutes late—solidifying trader consensus at 99.2% for the 5,000-5,500 range, consistent with late-March averages around 5,600 amid ongoing disruptions. Persistent government shutdown effects on TSA and FAA staffing have sustained elevated delays at hubs like Chicago O'Hare and New York airports, compounded by FAA-mandated landing restrictions at San Francisco International (SFO) due to runway repaving and safety measures, reducing parallel approaches. Absent severe weather or major storms—unlike mid-month events—totals stayed contained. Official resolution via Bureau of Transportation Statistics TranStats could revise slightly upward if late-filing reports emerge, but significant shifts above 5,500 appear improbable given stable preliminary figures.

This market will resolve based on the "Total delays within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on FlightAware when it is checked at 12:00 PM ET on the day after March 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the "Total delays within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on the "FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday" table when checked at the specified time.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to the lowest available bracket.
Volume
$11,283
End Date
Mar 30, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 27, 2026, 5:42 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve based on the "Total delays within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on FlightAware when it is checked at 12:00 PM ET on the day after March 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the "Total delays within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on the "FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday" table when checked at the specified time. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to the lowest available bracket.
This market will resolve based on the "Total delays within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on FlightAware when it is checked at 12:00 PM ET on the day after March 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the "Total delays within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on the "FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday" table when checked at the specified time. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to the lowest available bracket.Preliminary FlightAware data tallied approximately 5,200 US flight delays on March 30—arrivals 15+ minutes late—solidifying trader consensus at 99.2% for the 5,000-5,500 range, consistent with late-March averages around 5,600 amid ongoing disruptions. Persistent government shutdown effects on TSA and FAA staffing have sustained elevated delays at hubs like Chicago O'Hare and New York airports, compounded by FAA-mandated landing restrictions at San Francisco International (SFO) due to runway repaving and safety measures, reducing parallel approaches. Absent severe weather or major storms—unlike mid-month events—totals stayed contained. Official resolution via Bureau of Transportation Statistics TranStats could revise slightly upward if late-filing reports emerge, but significant shifts above 5,500 appear improbable given stable preliminary figures.

This market will resolve based on the "Total delays within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on FlightAware when it is checked at 12:00 PM ET on the day after March 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the "Total delays within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on the "FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday" table when checked at the specified time.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to the lowest available bracket.
Volume
$11,283
End Date
Mar 30, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 27, 2026, 5:42 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve based on the "Total delays within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on FlightAware when it is checked at 12:00 PM ET on the day after March 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the "Total delays within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on the "FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday" table when checked at the specified time. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to the lowest available bracket.

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Number of US Flights Delayed March 30?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "5,000-5,500" at 99%, followed by "5,500-6,000" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 99¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 99% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Number of US Flights Delayed March 30?" has generated $11.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 27, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Number of US Flights Delayed March 30?," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Number of US Flights Delayed March 30?" is "5,000-5,500" at 99%, meaning the market assigns a 99% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "5,500-6,000" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Number of US Flights Delayed March 30?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.