Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by...?

Name: Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by...?
Start: 2026-03-10T23:55:56.547Z
End: 2026-04-30T00:00:00.000Z

Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by...? — Discussion

0x1C134Acf6411D3c799bff067a4A35B049e11ce0E-1762519910439 · 2026-03-10T23:55:56.547Z

Discussion about Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by...?. Traders share insights and predictions on Polymarket.

Politics·Khamenei

Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by...?

$663,441 Vol.

May 31, 2026

March 31

$589,446 Vol.

April 30

$73,955 Vol.

May 31

$40 Vol.

25%

June 30

$0 Vol.

36%

$663,441 Vol.

March 31

$589,446 Vol.

April 30

$73,955 Vol.

May 31

$40 Vol.

25%

June 30

$0 Vol.

36%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei has left Iran for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes". If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily discounts the likelihood of Mojtaba Khamenei, son of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and rumored successor, departing Iran, with odds implying under 10% probability by year-end amid zero confirmed reports. Primary drivers include persistent unverified social media rumors fueled by Iran-Israel escalations and domestic protests, but official Iranian state media and primary statements affirm leadership continuity in Tehran and Qom. No diplomatic leaks, airport manifests, or eyewitness accounts from credible outlets substantiate exile claims. Key watchpoints: potential Supreme Leader health updates or intensified regional strikes, though historical base rates show clerical elites rarely flee amid crises, anchoring low market pricing.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated Mar 25, 2026, 3:06 PM UTC

Iran leadership change by December 31?

52%

Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?

43%

Will Mojtaba Khamenei tweet again on March 27?

33%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "June 30" at 37%, followed by "May 31" at 25%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 37¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by...?" has generated $663.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 10, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by...?," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by...?" is "June 30" at 37%, meaning the market assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "May 31" at 25%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by...?." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $663.4K traded on “Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by...?,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by...?," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 37¢ for "June 30" in the "Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by...?" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 37% chance that "June 30" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 37¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 63¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by...?" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Apr 30, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.

The "Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by...?" market has an active community of 60 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by...?." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by...?

Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by...?

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