Incumbent Sen. Tina Smith's retirement has opened Minnesota's Senate seat, yet recent polls as of March 29 show Democratic contenders Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and Rep. Angie Craig leading general election matchups against Republicans like Michele Tafoya by 2-7 points, driving trader consensus to 88.5% for a Democratic victory. Flanagan's edge in primary polling (up 3-30 points over Craig) stems from Smith's February endorsement and strong fundraising by Craig, while the GOP faces a fragmented nine-candidate field with no clear frontrunner—Tafoya at 41% in one February survey amid high undecideds. Forecasters rate it Likely Democratic, reflecting Minnesota's history of no Republican Senate win since 2002 and Harris's 2024 four-point edge, though primaries on August 11 and midterm national tides pose risks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$15,266 Vol.
$15,266 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat
89%
Republican
12%
$15,266 Vol.
$15,266 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat
$11,283 Vol.
89%
Republican
$3,983 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Minnesota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Sen. Tina Smith's retirement has opened Minnesota's Senate seat, yet recent polls as of March 29 show Democratic contenders Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and Rep. Angie Craig leading general election matchups against Republicans like Michele Tafoya by 2-7 points, driving trader consensus to 88.5% for a Democratic victory. Flanagan's edge in primary polling (up 3-30 points over Craig) stems from Smith's February endorsement and strong fundraising by Craig, while the GOP faces a fragmented nine-candidate field with no clear frontrunner—Tafoya at 41% in one February survey amid high undecideds. Forecasters rate it Likely Democratic, reflecting Minnesota's history of no Republican Senate win since 2002 and Harris's 2024 four-point edge, though primaries on August 11 and midterm national tides pose risks.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Minnesota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 5:07 PM ET
Volume
$15,266End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Minnesota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Sen. Tina Smith's retirement has opened Minnesota's Senate seat, yet recent polls as of March 29 show Democratic contenders Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and Rep. Angie Craig leading general election matchups against Republicans like Michele Tafoya by 2-7 points, driving trader consensus to 88.5% for a Democratic victory. Flanagan's edge in primary polling (up 3-30 points over Craig) stems from Smith's February endorsement and strong fundraising by Craig, while the GOP faces a fragmented nine-candidate field with no clear frontrunner—Tafoya at 41% in one February survey amid high undecideds. Forecasters rate it Likely Democratic, reflecting Minnesota's history of no Republican Senate win since 2002 and Harris's 2024 four-point edge, though primaries on August 11 and midterm national tides pose risks.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Minnesota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$15,266End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Sen. Tina Smith's retirement has opened Minnesota's Senate seat, yet recent polls as of March 29 show Democratic contenders Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and Rep. Angie Craig leading general election matchups against Republicans like Michele Tafoya by 2-7 points, driving trader consensus to 88.5% for a Democratic victory. Flanagan's edge in primary polling (up 3-30 points over Craig) stems from Smith's February endorsement and strong fundraising by Craig, while the GOP faces a fragmented nine-candidate field with no clear frontrunner—Tafoya at 41% in one February survey amid high undecideds. Forecasters rate it Likely Democratic, reflecting Minnesota's history of no Republican Senate win since 2002 and Harris's 2024 four-point edge, though primaries on August 11 and midterm national tides pose risks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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