Miguel Díaz-Canel's re-election as Cuba's president by the National Assembly in October 2023 for a second five-year term extending to 2028 underpins trader consensus favoring his continuation in office, with "No" at 60% implied probability. No verified official announcements, party leadership challenges, or institutional pressures indicate an imminent removal by June 30, despite ongoing economic hardships, frequent blackouts, and sporadic protests quelled by government crackdowns as recently as March 2024. In a one-party state dominated by the Communist Party of Cuba, abrupt leadership transitions remain rare absent health crises or elite defections, with recent diplomatic engagements and domestic addresses reinforcing stability. Traders price in the regime's historical resilience against unrest, though escalation in protests or external shocks could shift odds ahead of the mid-2025 deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$204,984 Vol.
$204,984 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$204,984 Vol.
$204,984 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be the President of Cuba for any period of time between November 18, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Miguel Díaz-Canel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be the government of Cuba, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Miguel Díaz-Canel's re-election as Cuba's president by the National Assembly in October 2023 for a second five-year term extending to 2028 underpins trader consensus favoring his continuation in office, with "No" at 60% implied probability. No verified official announcements, party leadership challenges, or institutional pressures indicate an imminent removal by June 30, despite ongoing economic hardships, frequent blackouts, and sporadic protests quelled by government crackdowns as recently as March 2024. In a one-party state dominated by the Communist Party of Cuba, abrupt leadership transitions remain rare absent health crises or elite defections, with recent diplomatic engagements and domestic addresses reinforcing stability. Traders price in the regime's historical resilience against unrest, though escalation in protests or external shocks could shift odds ahead of the mid-2025 deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be the President of Cuba for any period of time between November 18, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Miguel Díaz-Canel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be the government of Cuba, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
An announcement of Miguel Díaz-Canel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be the government of Cuba, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Market Opened: Nov 18, 2025, 4:11 PM ET
Volume
$204,984End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Nov 18, 2025, 4:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be the President of Cuba for any period of time between November 18, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Miguel Díaz-Canel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be the government of Cuba, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Miguel Díaz-Canel's re-election as Cuba's president by the National Assembly in October 2023 for a second five-year term extending to 2028 underpins trader consensus favoring his continuation in office, with "No" at 60% implied probability. No verified official announcements, party leadership challenges, or institutional pressures indicate an imminent removal by June 30, despite ongoing economic hardships, frequent blackouts, and sporadic protests quelled by government crackdowns as recently as March 2024. In a one-party state dominated by the Communist Party of Cuba, abrupt leadership transitions remain rare absent health crises or elite defections, with recent diplomatic engagements and domestic addresses reinforcing stability. Traders price in the regime's historical resilience against unrest, though escalation in protests or external shocks could shift odds ahead of the mid-2025 deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be the President of Cuba for any period of time between November 18, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Miguel Díaz-Canel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be the government of Cuba, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
An announcement of Miguel Díaz-Canel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be the government of Cuba, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Volume
$204,984End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Nov 18, 2025, 4:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Miguel Díaz-Canel's re-election as Cuba's president by the National Assembly in October 2023 for a second five-year term extending to 2028 underpins trader consensus favoring his continuation in office, with "No" at 60% implied probability. No verified official announcements, party leadership challenges, or institutional pressures indicate an imminent removal by June 30, despite ongoing economic hardships, frequent blackouts, and sporadic protests quelled by government crackdowns as recently as March 2024. In a one-party state dominated by the Communist Party of Cuba, abrupt leadership transitions remain rare absent health crises or elite defections, with recent diplomatic engagements and domestic addresses reinforcing stability. Traders price in the regime's historical resilience against unrest, though escalation in protests or external shocks could shift odds ahead of the mid-2025 deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions