Preliminary ERA5 reanalysis and real-time observational data indicate March 2026 global surface air temperature anomaly tracking around 1.25–1.29ºC above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline, positioning this as the market-implied frontrunner at 48.7% probability; this reflects a modest cooldown from January and February's fifth-warmest ~1.48ºC peaks amid La Niña's fade to ENSO-neutral conditions (90% likelihood per IRI forecasts through May). Record sea surface temperatures of 21.15ºC on March 24, U.S. record-hot March, and southern Europe extremes bolster warmth despite neutral Pacific signals, consistent with accelerated decadal warming near 0.35ºC. Official Copernicus and NOAA bulletins, expected early April, will finalize resolution using blended datasets, with model consensus showing low uncertainty in this bin.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedMarch 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
March 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.25–1.29ºC 48.5%
1.20–1.24ºC 36%
>1.29ºC 11.3%
1.15–1.19ºC 7%
$210,276 Vol.
$210,276 Vol.
Apr 10, 2026
<1.10ºC
1%
1.10–1.14ºC
2%
1.15–1.19ºC
7%
1.20–1.24ºC
36%
1.25–1.29ºC
49%
>1.29ºC
11%
1.25–1.29ºC 48.5%
1.20–1.24ºC 36%
>1.29ºC 11.3%
1.15–1.19ºC 7%
$210,276 Vol.
$210,276 Vol.
Apr 10, 2026
<1.10ºC
$27,620 Vol.
1%
1.10–1.14ºC
$26,400 Vol.
2%
1.15–1.19ºC
$52,310 Vol.
7%
1.20–1.24ºC
$38,015 Vol.
36%
1.25–1.29ºC
$25,100 Vol.
49%
>1.29ºC
$40,831 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Preliminary ERA5 reanalysis and real-time observational data indicate March 2026 global surface air temperature anomaly tracking around 1.25–1.29ºC above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline, positioning this as the market-implied frontrunner at 48.7% probability; this reflects a modest cooldown from January and February's fifth-warmest ~1.48ºC peaks amid La Niña's fade to ENSO-neutral conditions (90% likelihood per IRI forecasts through May). Record sea surface temperatures of 21.15ºC on March 24, U.S. record-hot March, and southern Europe extremes bolster warmth despite neutral Pacific signals, consistent with accelerated decadal warming near 0.35ºC. Official Copernicus and NOAA bulletins, expected early April, will finalize resolution using blended datasets, with model consensus showing low uncertainty in this bin.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Market Opened: Feb 27, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Volume
$210,276End Date
Apr 10, 2026Market Opened
Feb 27, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Preliminary ERA5 reanalysis and real-time observational data indicate March 2026 global surface air temperature anomaly tracking around 1.25–1.29ºC above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline, positioning this as the market-implied frontrunner at 48.7% probability; this reflects a modest cooldown from January and February's fifth-warmest ~1.48ºC peaks amid La Niña's fade to ENSO-neutral conditions (90% likelihood per IRI forecasts through May). Record sea surface temperatures of 21.15ºC on March 24, U.S. record-hot March, and southern Europe extremes bolster warmth despite neutral Pacific signals, consistent with accelerated decadal warming near 0.35ºC. Official Copernicus and NOAA bulletins, expected early April, will finalize resolution using blended datasets, with model consensus showing low uncertainty in this bin.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$210,276End Date
Apr 10, 2026Market Opened
Feb 27, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Preliminary ERA5 reanalysis and real-time observational data indicate March 2026 global surface air temperature anomaly tracking around 1.25–1.29ºC above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline, positioning this as the market-implied frontrunner at 48.7% probability; this reflects a modest cooldown from January and February's fifth-warmest ~1.48ºC peaks amid La Niña's fade to ENSO-neutral conditions (90% likelihood per IRI forecasts through May). Record sea surface temperatures of 21.15ºC on March 24, U.S. record-hot March, and southern Europe extremes bolster warmth despite neutral Pacific signals, consistent with accelerated decadal warming near 0.35ºC. Official Copernicus and NOAA bulletins, expected early April, will finalize resolution using blended datasets, with model consensus showing low uncertainty in this bin.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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