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Politics·Trump

Maduro exiled to Russia by March 31?

Market icon
Politics·Trump

Maduro exiled to Russia by March 31?

<1% chance
Polymarket

$162,567 Vol.

<1% chance
Polymarket

$162,567 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro is exiled to Russia by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Maduro will be considered to be exiled to Russia if he is expelled from, or voluntarily leaves, Venezuela to live in freedom in Russia for an extended period. Announcements of Maduro's exile will not qualify; he must actually move there. Visits or trips to Russia will not count. Imprisonment or detention in Russia will not count. Freedom of movement is not required for a qualifying exile, as long as Maduro is not being held as a prisoner or detainee. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Nicolás Maduro remains in U.S. custody at a New York detention center following his January 3, 2026, capture during a U.S. military intervention in Venezuela, driving trader consensus to 99.9% on "No" for exile to Russia by March 31. Pre-capture diplomatic efforts, including Vatican-mediated Russian asylum offers, failed amid Maduro's rejection of negotiations. Recent pre-trial hearings on March 26, including a judge's refusal to dismiss narco-terrorism charges or allow Venezuelan funding for his defense, solidify his detention status with no relocation signals. Realistic shifts would require unprecedented legal reversals, diplomatic breakthroughs, or sudden release—highly improbable given ongoing prosecution and institutional barriers before the deadline.

Nicolás Maduro remains in U.S. custody at a New York detention center following his January 3, 2026, capture during a U.S. military intervention in Venezuela, driving trader consensus to 99.9% on "No" for exile to Russia by March 31. Pre-capture diplomatic efforts, including Vatican-mediated Russian asylum offers, failed amid Maduro's rejection of negotiations. Recent pre-trial hearings on March 26, including a judge's refusal to dismiss narco-terrorism charges or allow Venezuelan funding for his defense, solidify his detention status with no relocation signals. Realistic shifts would require unprecedented legal reversals, diplomatic breakthroughs, or sudden release—highly improbable given ongoing prosecution and institutional barriers before the deadline.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro is exiled to Russia by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Maduro will be considered to be exiled to Russia if he is expelled from, or voluntarily leaves, Venezuela to live in freedom in Russia for an extended period. Announcements of Maduro's exile will not qualify; he must actually move there. Visits or trips to Russia will not count. Imprisonment or detention in Russia will not count. Freedom of movement is not required for a qualifying exile, as long as Maduro is not being held as a prisoner or detainee. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Nicolás Maduro remains in U.S. custody at a New York detention center following his January 3, 2026, capture during a U.S. military intervention in Venezuela, driving trader consensus to 99.9% on "No" for exile to Russia by March 31. Pre-capture diplomatic efforts, including Vatican-mediated Russian asylum offers, failed amid Maduro's rejection of negotiations. Recent pre-trial hearings on March 26, including a judge's refusal to dismiss narco-terrorism charges or allow Venezuelan funding for his defense, solidify his detention status with no relocation signals. Realistic shifts would require unprecedented legal reversals, diplomatic breakthroughs, or sudden release—highly improbable given ongoing prosecution and institutional barriers before the deadline.

Nicolás Maduro remains in U.S. custody at a New York detention center following his January 3, 2026, capture during a U.S. military intervention in Venezuela, driving trader consensus to 99.9% on "No" for exile to Russia by March 31. Pre-capture diplomatic efforts, including Vatican-mediated Russian asylum offers, failed amid Maduro's rejection of negotiations. Recent pre-trial hearings on March 26, including a judge's refusal to dismiss narco-terrorism charges or allow Venezuelan funding for his defense, solidify his detention status with no relocation signals. Realistic shifts would require unprecedented legal reversals, diplomatic breakthroughs, or sudden release—highly improbable given ongoing prosecution and institutional barriers before the deadline.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Maduro exiled to Russia by March 31?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 0% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 0¢, the market collectively assigns a 0% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Maduro exiled to Russia by March 31?" has generated $162.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Maduro exiled to Russia by March 31?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Maduro exiled to Russia by March 31?" is 0% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 0% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Maduro exiled to Russia by March 31?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.