Louisiana's status as a deep-red state, with Republicans dominating recent presidential and Senate races by wide margins, drives trader consensus toward a 90.5% implied probability for the GOP winner in the November general election. Incumbent Sen. Bill Cassidy holds a polling lead in the competitive closed Republican primary on May 16—potentially followed by a June 27 runoff—over Trump-endorsed Rep. Julia Letlow and State Treasurer John Fleming, as shown in mid-March surveys amid attack ads and intra-party tensions. A weak Democratic primary field offers no credible general election threat. Scenarios to upend this include a scandal-plagued GOP nominee, unforeseen Democratic recruitment success, or a national anti-incumbent wave boosting turnout.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedNEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican
90%
Democrat
7%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican
$1,641 Vol.
90%
Democrat
$2,139 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Louisiana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Louisiana's status as a deep-red state, with Republicans dominating recent presidential and Senate races by wide margins, drives trader consensus toward a 90.5% implied probability for the GOP winner in the November general election. Incumbent Sen. Bill Cassidy holds a polling lead in the competitive closed Republican primary on May 16—potentially followed by a June 27 runoff—over Trump-endorsed Rep. Julia Letlow and State Treasurer John Fleming, as shown in mid-March surveys amid attack ads and intra-party tensions. A weak Democratic primary field offers no credible general election threat. Scenarios to upend this include a scandal-plagued GOP nominee, unforeseen Democratic recruitment success, or a national anti-incumbent wave boosting turnout.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Louisiana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ET
Volume
$3,779End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Louisiana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Louisiana's status as a deep-red state, with Republicans dominating recent presidential and Senate races by wide margins, drives trader consensus toward a 90.5% implied probability for the GOP winner in the November general election. Incumbent Sen. Bill Cassidy holds a polling lead in the competitive closed Republican primary on May 16—potentially followed by a June 27 runoff—over Trump-endorsed Rep. Julia Letlow and State Treasurer John Fleming, as shown in mid-March surveys amid attack ads and intra-party tensions. A weak Democratic primary field offers no credible general election threat. Scenarios to upend this include a scandal-plagued GOP nominee, unforeseen Democratic recruitment success, or a national anti-incumbent wave boosting turnout.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Louisiana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$3,779End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Louisiana's status as a deep-red state, with Republicans dominating recent presidential and Senate races by wide margins, drives trader consensus toward a 90.5% implied probability for the GOP winner in the November general election. Incumbent Sen. Bill Cassidy holds a polling lead in the competitive closed Republican primary on May 16—potentially followed by a June 27 runoff—over Trump-endorsed Rep. Julia Letlow and State Treasurer John Fleming, as shown in mid-March surveys amid attack ads and intra-party tensions. A weak Democratic primary field offers no credible general election threat. Scenarios to upend this include a scandal-plagued GOP nominee, unforeseen Democratic recruitment success, or a national anti-incumbent wave boosting turnout.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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