Israel's ongoing ground incursion and airstrikes in southern Lebanon, escalated since Hezbollah's March rocket barrages in response to Iran's supreme leader assassination, dominate trader consensus on military action risks. Prime Minister Netanyahu recently ordered expansion of a buffer zone toward the Litani River, with IDF forces advancing 11 kilometers amid demolitions and targeted killings of Hezbollah operatives. Freshest catalysts include April 1 Hezbollah rocket attacks on northern Israel prompting retaliatory strikes on Beirut suburbs, killing at least eight, and four IDF soldiers lost in combat days prior; UN peacekeepers have also suffered fatalities. Prolonged operations loom, potentially targeting Lebanese infrastructure, as diplomatic ceasefire efforts falter amid proxy escalations involving Houthis and Iran.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedIsrael military action against Lebanon on...?
Israel military action against Lebanon on...?
$12,915 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
April 1
99%
April 2
94%
April 3
97%
April 4
96%
April 5
95%
April 6
96%
April 7
91%
April 8
91%
April 9
90%
April 10
89%
$12,915 Vol.
April 1
$4,903 Vol.
99%
April 2
$3,580 Vol.
94%
April 3
$109 Vol.
97%
April 4
$528 Vol.
96%
April 5
$51 Vol.
95%
April 6
$273 Vol.
96%
April 7
$246 Vol.
91%
April 8
$3,111 Vol.
91%
April 9
$83 Vol.
90%
April 10
$30 Vol.
89%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Lebanese soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Lebanese ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Lebanon counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Lebanese territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Israel's ongoing ground incursion and airstrikes in southern Lebanon, escalated since Hezbollah's March rocket barrages in response to Iran's supreme leader assassination, dominate trader consensus on military action risks. Prime Minister Netanyahu recently ordered expansion of a buffer zone toward the Litani River, with IDF forces advancing 11 kilometers amid demolitions and targeted killings of Hezbollah operatives. Freshest catalysts include April 1 Hezbollah rocket attacks on northern Israel prompting retaliatory strikes on Beirut suburbs, killing at least eight, and four IDF soldiers lost in combat days prior; UN peacekeepers have also suffered fatalities. Prolonged operations loom, potentially targeting Lebanese infrastructure, as diplomatic ceasefire efforts falter amid proxy escalations involving Houthis and Iran.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Lebanese soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Lebanese ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Lebanon counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Lebanese territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Lebanese ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Lebanon counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Lebanese territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Market Opened: Mar 24, 2026, 1:01 PM ET
Volume
$12,915End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 1:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Lebanese soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Lebanese ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Lebanon counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Lebanese territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Israel's ongoing ground incursion and airstrikes in southern Lebanon, escalated since Hezbollah's March rocket barrages in response to Iran's supreme leader assassination, dominate trader consensus on military action risks. Prime Minister Netanyahu recently ordered expansion of a buffer zone toward the Litani River, with IDF forces advancing 11 kilometers amid demolitions and targeted killings of Hezbollah operatives. Freshest catalysts include April 1 Hezbollah rocket attacks on northern Israel prompting retaliatory strikes on Beirut suburbs, killing at least eight, and four IDF soldiers lost in combat days prior; UN peacekeepers have also suffered fatalities. Prolonged operations loom, potentially targeting Lebanese infrastructure, as diplomatic ceasefire efforts falter amid proxy escalations involving Houthis and Iran.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Lebanese soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Lebanese ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Lebanon counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Lebanese territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Lebanese ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Lebanon counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Lebanese territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$12,915End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 1:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Israel's ongoing ground incursion and airstrikes in southern Lebanon, escalated since Hezbollah's March rocket barrages in response to Iran's supreme leader assassination, dominate trader consensus on military action risks. Prime Minister Netanyahu recently ordered expansion of a buffer zone toward the Litani River, with IDF forces advancing 11 kilometers amid demolitions and targeted killings of Hezbollah operatives. Freshest catalysts include April 1 Hezbollah rocket attacks on northern Israel prompting retaliatory strikes on Beirut suburbs, killing at least eight, and four IDF soldiers lost in combat days prior; UN peacekeepers have also suffered fatalities. Prolonged operations loom, potentially targeting Lebanese infrastructure, as diplomatic ceasefire efforts falter amid proxy escalations involving Houthis and Iran.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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