Amid escalating tensions in the ongoing US-Israel-Iran war that began with surprise airstrikes on February 28, 2026, Iran has launched multiple ballistic missile barrages at Israel, including a March 27 strike on Haifa injuring at least nine and daily cluster missile attacks reported through late March. On March 28, Iran-backed Houthis fired their first missiles at southern Israeli military sites since the conflict's outset, intercepted but signaling proxy involvement. Israel reports nearing 90% degradation of Iran's key defense infrastructure via strikes on missile factories, naval bases, and weapons production. Diplomatic efforts include Iran's review of a US ceasefire proposal—deemed unreasonable—and Pakistan-hosted talks among Turkiye, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt on March 29-30 to pursue de-escalation, though military exchanges continue ahead of the April 30 deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedIran military action against ___ by April 30?
Iran military action against ___ by April 30?
$132,837 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Bahrain
95%
UAE
92%
Kuwait
91%
Iraq
68%
Qatar
49%
Oman
40%
Syria
29%
Lebanon
29%
Yemen
16%
Pakistan
11%
Turkey
8%
Azerbaijan
8%
Cyprus
7%
UK
5%
India
5%
Poland
4%
Ukraine
3%
Germany
3%
Italy
3%
Hungary
3%
France
3%
Afghanistan
3%
Spain
2%
Georgia
2%
Armenia
2%
$132,837 Vol.
Bahrain
$3,596 Vol.
95%
UAE
$904 Vol.
92%
Kuwait
$1,125 Vol.
91%
Iraq
$482 Vol.
68%
Qatar
$1,072 Vol.
49%
Oman
$2,051 Vol.
40%
Syria
$283 Vol.
29%
Lebanon
$905 Vol.
29%
Yemen
$389 Vol.
16%
Pakistan
$0 Vol.
11%
Turkey
$279 Vol.
8%
Azerbaijan
$568 Vol.
8%
Cyprus
$263 Vol.
7%
UK
$1,593 Vol.
5%
India
$0 Vol.
5%
Poland
$27,897 Vol.
4%
Ukraine
$1,392 Vol.
3%
Germany
$4,281 Vol.
3%
Italy
$110 Vol.
3%
Hungary
$12,812 Vol.
3%
France
$0 Vol.
3%
Afghanistan
$0 Vol.
3%
Spain
$1,672 Vol.
2%
Georgia
$460 Vol.
2%
Armenia
$583 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Amid escalating tensions in the ongoing US-Israel-Iran war that began with surprise airstrikes on February 28, 2026, Iran has launched multiple ballistic missile barrages at Israel, including a March 27 strike on Haifa injuring at least nine and daily cluster missile attacks reported through late March. On March 28, Iran-backed Houthis fired their first missiles at southern Israeli military sites since the conflict's outset, intercepted but signaling proxy involvement. Israel reports nearing 90% degradation of Iran's key defense infrastructure via strikes on missile factories, naval bases, and weapons production. Diplomatic efforts include Iran's review of a US ceasefire proposal—deemed unreasonable—and Pakistan-hosted talks among Turkiye, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt on March 29-30 to pursue de-escalation, though military exchanges continue ahead of the April 30 deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Market Opened: Mar 24, 2026, 1:27 PM ET
Volume
$132,837End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 1:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Amid escalating tensions in the ongoing US-Israel-Iran war that began with surprise airstrikes on February 28, 2026, Iran has launched multiple ballistic missile barrages at Israel, including a March 27 strike on Haifa injuring at least nine and daily cluster missile attacks reported through late March. On March 28, Iran-backed Houthis fired their first missiles at southern Israeli military sites since the conflict's outset, intercepted but signaling proxy involvement. Israel reports nearing 90% degradation of Iran's key defense infrastructure via strikes on missile factories, naval bases, and weapons production. Diplomatic efforts include Iran's review of a US ceasefire proposal—deemed unreasonable—and Pakistan-hosted talks among Turkiye, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt on March 29-30 to pursue de-escalation, though military exchanges continue ahead of the April 30 deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$132,837End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 1:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
Amid escalating tensions in the ongoing US-Israel-Iran war that began with surprise airstrikes on February 28, 2026, Iran has launched multiple ballistic missile barrages at Israel, including a March 27 strike on Haifa injuring at least nine and daily cluster missile attacks reported through late March. On March 28, Iran-backed Houthis fired their first missiles at southern Israeli military sites since the conflict's outset, intercepted but signaling proxy involvement. Israel reports nearing 90% degradation of Iran's key defense infrastructure via strikes on missile factories, naval bases, and weapons production. Diplomatic efforts include Iran's review of a US ceasefire proposal—deemed unreasonable—and Pakistan-hosted talks among Turkiye, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt on March 29-30 to pursue de-escalation, though military exchanges continue ahead of the April 30 deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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