Trader consensus prices Idaho's Senate seat at 90.5% for the Republican nominee, reflecting the state's entrenched Republican dominance—over 55% GOP voter registration versus 12% Democrats—where no Democrat has won since 1974. Incumbent Jim Risch's reelection bid, backed by President Trump's endorsement and $3.9 million cash-on-hand, bolsters this edge amid a fragmented Democratic primary field (David Roth, Nickolas Bonds, Brad Moore) lacking resources. A recent March 16-17 PPP poll showing independent Todd Achilles leading Risch head-to-head has had minimal impact, viewed as an early Democratic pollster outlier. Scenarios challenging this include Risch's age-related health issues, a surprise GOP primary upset on May 19, or Achilles siphoning enough Republican votes for a Democratic plurality.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedNEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican
91%
Democrat
8%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican
$4,991 Vol.
91%
Democrat
$3,348 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Idaho U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus prices Idaho's Senate seat at 90.5% for the Republican nominee, reflecting the state's entrenched Republican dominance—over 55% GOP voter registration versus 12% Democrats—where no Democrat has won since 1974. Incumbent Jim Risch's reelection bid, backed by President Trump's endorsement and $3.9 million cash-on-hand, bolsters this edge amid a fragmented Democratic primary field (David Roth, Nickolas Bonds, Brad Moore) lacking resources. A recent March 16-17 PPP poll showing independent Todd Achilles leading Risch head-to-head has had minimal impact, viewed as an early Democratic pollster outlier. Scenarios challenging this include Risch's age-related health issues, a surprise GOP primary upset on May 19, or Achilles siphoning enough Republican votes for a Democratic plurality.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Idaho U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ET
Volume
$8,339End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Idaho U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus prices Idaho's Senate seat at 90.5% for the Republican nominee, reflecting the state's entrenched Republican dominance—over 55% GOP voter registration versus 12% Democrats—where no Democrat has won since 1974. Incumbent Jim Risch's reelection bid, backed by President Trump's endorsement and $3.9 million cash-on-hand, bolsters this edge amid a fragmented Democratic primary field (David Roth, Nickolas Bonds, Brad Moore) lacking resources. A recent March 16-17 PPP poll showing independent Todd Achilles leading Risch head-to-head has had minimal impact, viewed as an early Democratic pollster outlier. Scenarios challenging this include Risch's age-related health issues, a surprise GOP primary upset on May 19, or Achilles siphoning enough Republican votes for a Democratic plurality.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Idaho U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$8,339End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus prices Idaho's Senate seat at 90.5% for the Republican nominee, reflecting the state's entrenched Republican dominance—over 55% GOP voter registration versus 12% Democrats—where no Democrat has won since 1974. Incumbent Jim Risch's reelection bid, backed by President Trump's endorsement and $3.9 million cash-on-hand, bolsters this edge amid a fragmented Democratic primary field (David Roth, Nickolas Bonds, Brad Moore) lacking resources. A recent March 16-17 PPP poll showing independent Todd Achilles leading Risch head-to-head has had minimal impact, viewed as an early Democratic pollster outlier. Scenarios challenging this include Risch's age-related health issues, a surprise GOP primary upset on May 19, or Achilles siphoning enough Republican votes for a Democratic plurality.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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