Trader consensus favors exactly one large volcanic eruption (Volcanic Explosivity Index, or VEI, ≥4) at 44.5% market-implied probability for 2026, with zero at 32%, reflecting the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program's confirmation of none through late March despite 41-45 volcanoes in ongoing low-level activity. This positioning stems from historical baselines of roughly 0-2 VEI≥4 events annually worldwide, with no long-term uptick in global volcanism per GVP data spanning decades. Recent weekly reports highlight unrest at sites like Semeru and Kīlauea—effusive or Strombolian styles below VEI 4 thresholds—but no escalated seismicity, gas emissions, or deformation signaling major explosions. Uncertainties persist in unpredictable magmatic systems; key updates from GVP bulletins and USGS monitoring could shift odds as the year progresses.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHow many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
1 45%
0 32%
2 9.0%
3 3.1%
$676,901 Vol.
$676,901 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
0
32%
1
45%
2
9%
3
3%
4
2%
5+
2%
1 45%
0 32%
2 9.0%
3 3.1%
$676,901 Vol.
$676,901 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
0
$392,306 Vol.
32%
1
$237,533 Vol.
45%
2
$18,276 Vol.
9%
3
$6,252 Vol.
3%
4
$11,615 Vol.
2%
5+
$10,920 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus favors exactly one large volcanic eruption (Volcanic Explosivity Index, or VEI, ≥4) at 44.5% market-implied probability for 2026, with zero at 32%, reflecting the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program's confirmation of none through late March despite 41-45 volcanoes in ongoing low-level activity. This positioning stems from historical baselines of roughly 0-2 VEI≥4 events annually worldwide, with no long-term uptick in global volcanism per GVP data spanning decades. Recent weekly reports highlight unrest at sites like Semeru and Kīlauea—effusive or Strombolian styles below VEI 4 thresholds—but no escalated seismicity, gas emissions, or deformation signaling major explosions. Uncertainties persist in unpredictable magmatic systems; key updates from GVP bulletins and USGS monitoring could shift odds as the year progresses.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
Volume
$676,901End Date
Mar 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus favors exactly one large volcanic eruption (Volcanic Explosivity Index, or VEI, ≥4) at 44.5% market-implied probability for 2026, with zero at 32%, reflecting the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program's confirmation of none through late March despite 41-45 volcanoes in ongoing low-level activity. This positioning stems from historical baselines of roughly 0-2 VEI≥4 events annually worldwide, with no long-term uptick in global volcanism per GVP data spanning decades. Recent weekly reports highlight unrest at sites like Semeru and Kīlauea—effusive or Strombolian styles below VEI 4 thresholds—but no escalated seismicity, gas emissions, or deformation signaling major explosions. Uncertainties persist in unpredictable magmatic systems; key updates from GVP bulletins and USGS monitoring could shift odds as the year progresses.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Volume
$676,901End Date
Mar 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors exactly one large volcanic eruption (Volcanic Explosivity Index, or VEI, ≥4) at 44.5% market-implied probability for 2026, with zero at 32%, reflecting the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program's confirmation of none through late March despite 41-45 volcanoes in ongoing low-level activity. This positioning stems from historical baselines of roughly 0-2 VEI≥4 events annually worldwide, with no long-term uptick in global volcanism per GVP data spanning decades. Recent weekly reports highlight unrest at sites like Semeru and Kīlauea—effusive or Strombolian styles below VEI 4 thresholds—but no escalated seismicity, gas emissions, or deformation signaling major explosions. Uncertainties persist in unpredictable magmatic systems; key updates from GVP bulletins and USGS monitoring could shift odds as the year progresses.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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