How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

Name: How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
Start: 2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z
End: 2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z

3 (75 bps) 25%

2 (50 bps) 24%

1 (25 bps) 15%

4 (100 bps) 15%

$4,103,173 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026

0 (0 bps)
$706,951 Vol.
7%

1 (25 bps)
$358,164 Vol.
15%

2 (50 bps)
$342,169 Vol.
24%

3 (75 bps)
$254,402 Vol.
25%

4 (100 bps)
$224,860 Vol.
15%

5 (125 bps)
$236,994 Vol.
7%

6 (150 bps)
$311,091 Vol.
4%

7 (175 bps)
$244,333 Vol.
2%

8 (200 bps)
$317,615 Vol.
1%

9 (225 bps)
$242,223 Vol.
1%

10 (250 bps)
$262,951 Vol.
1%

11 (275 bps)
$299,520 Vol.
1%

12+ (300+ bps)
$301,900 Vol.
2%

Rules

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

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How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

3 (75 bps) 25%

2 (50 bps) 24%

1 (25 bps) 15%

4 (100 bps) 15%

$4,103,173 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026

0 (0 bps)

$706,951 Vol.

1 (25 bps)

$358,164 Vol.

15%

2 (50 bps)

$342,169 Vol.

24%

3 (75 bps)

$254,402 Vol.

25%

4 (100 bps)

$224,860 Vol.

15%

5 (125 bps)

$236,994 Vol.

6 (150 bps)

$311,091 Vol.

7 (175 bps)

$244,333 Vol.

8 (200 bps)

$317,615 Vol.

9 (225 bps)

$242,223 Vol.

10 (250 bps)

$262,951 Vol.

11 (275 bps)

$299,520 Vol.

12+ (300+ bps)

$301,900 Vol.

About

Volume

$4,103,173

End Date

Dec 31, 2026

Created At

Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

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61%

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89%

Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.0% at the end of 2026?

31%

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