Trader consensus on Polymarket prices US military actions against seven countries in 2026 at 29.5%, with eight and nine close behind, reflecting confirmed airstrikes and drone strikes in Yemen against Houthis, Somalia versus al-Shabaab, Iraq and Syria targeting ISIS, Iran via Operation Epic Fury launched late February in coordination with Israel, Venezuela through January's Operation Absolute Resolve, and Nigeria for counterterrorism. This tally drives the tight race among 7-9 outcomes, as ongoing Middle East escalation—including President Trump's April 1 address detailing Iran's decimation—and African operations leave room for ambiguity on additional distinct targets like Ecuador or narco-terror vessels. Separation could arise from Iran proxy expansions, new Latin American interventions, or intensified narco campaigns before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHow many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?
How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?
7 30.2%
8 19.7%
9 16.2%
10 10.5%
$721,750 Vol.
$721,750 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
6
9%
7
30%
8
20%
9
16%
10
10%
11
4%
12
2%
13
2%
14
1%
15+
4%
7 30.2%
8 19.7%
9 16.2%
10 10.5%
$721,750 Vol.
$721,750 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
6
$417,176 Vol.
9%
7
$3,938 Vol.
30%
8
$5,748 Vol.
20%
9
$8,921 Vol.
16%
10
$10,262 Vol.
10%
11
$7,995 Vol.
4%
12
$10,045 Vol.
2%
13
$7,250 Vol.
2%
14
$41,441 Vol.
1%
15+
$49,132 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices US military actions against seven countries in 2026 at 29.5%, with eight and nine close behind, reflecting confirmed airstrikes and drone strikes in Yemen against Houthis, Somalia versus al-Shabaab, Iraq and Syria targeting ISIS, Iran via Operation Epic Fury launched late February in coordination with Israel, Venezuela through January's Operation Absolute Resolve, and Nigeria for counterterrorism. This tally drives the tight race among 7-9 outcomes, as ongoing Middle East escalation—including President Trump's April 1 address detailing Iran's decimation—and African operations leave room for ambiguity on additional distinct targets like Ecuador or narco-terror vessels. Separation could arise from Iran proxy expansions, new Latin American interventions, or intensified narco campaigns before year-end.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 13, 2025, 11:15 AM ET
Volume
$721,750End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 11:15 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices US military actions against seven countries in 2026 at 29.5%, with eight and nine close behind, reflecting confirmed airstrikes and drone strikes in Yemen against Houthis, Somalia versus al-Shabaab, Iraq and Syria targeting ISIS, Iran via Operation Epic Fury launched late February in coordination with Israel, Venezuela through January's Operation Absolute Resolve, and Nigeria for counterterrorism. This tally drives the tight race among 7-9 outcomes, as ongoing Middle East escalation—including President Trump's April 1 address detailing Iran's decimation—and African operations leave room for ambiguity on additional distinct targets like Ecuador or narco-terror vessels. Separation could arise from Iran proxy expansions, new Latin American interventions, or intensified narco campaigns before year-end.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$721,750End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 11:15 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices US military actions against seven countries in 2026 at 29.5%, with eight and nine close behind, reflecting confirmed airstrikes and drone strikes in Yemen against Houthis, Somalia versus al-Shabaab, Iraq and Syria targeting ISIS, Iran via Operation Epic Fury launched late February in coordination with Israel, Venezuela through January's Operation Absolute Resolve, and Nigeria for counterterrorism. This tally drives the tight race among 7-9 outcomes, as ongoing Middle East escalation—including President Trump's April 1 address detailing Iran's decimation—and African operations leave room for ambiguity on additional distinct targets like Ecuador or narco-terror vessels. Separation could arise from Iran proxy expansions, new Latin American interventions, or intensified narco campaigns before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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