Name: How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in 2025?
Start: 2025-04-09T07:06:41.095729Z
End: 2025-12-31T12:00:00Z

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between April 9 and December 31, 2025. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).

4.5%

4.6%

4.8%

5.0%

5.2%

5.5%

5.7%

6.0%

10-year Treasur

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in 2025?

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Market Event Summary

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This market will resolve to “Yes”  if the Treasury 10-year yield on on April 18, 2025 is greater than 4.50% according to the daily values published by the Department of the Treasury. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. 

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the Treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).


10-year Treasury yield >4.5% Friday?

This market will resolve to according to the Treasury 10-year yield on on April 11, 2025 according to the daily values published by the Department of the Treasury.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the Treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).

10-year Treasury yield on Friday?

This is a market on whether the yield of the United States 10-Year Treasury Bond reaches greater than 5.000% between December 28 and market close on June 30, 2025.

If the yield of the US 10-Year T-Bond is greater than 5.000% at any time between between December 28, 2024 and market close on June 30 2025, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be investing.com's reporting found at https://www.investing.com/rates-bonds/u.s.-10-year-bond-yield-historical-data. The resolution will be based on the values listed in the column labelled “High” in rows titled by dates within this market's timeframe.

US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between April 9 and April 30, 2025. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in April?

This market will resolve to “Yes”  if the Treasury 10-year yield on April 25, 2025 is greater than 4.40% according to the daily values published by the Department of the Treasury. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. 

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the Treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).


10-year Treasury yield >4.4% Friday?

This market will resolve to “Yes”  if the Treasury 10-year yield on May 2, 2025 is greater than 4.30% according to the daily values published by the Department of the Treasury. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. 

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the Treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).


10-year Treasury yield >4.3% Friday?

This market will resolve to “Yes”  if the Treasury 10-year yield on May 9, 2025 is greater than 4.30% according to the daily values published by the Department of the Treasury. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. 

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the Treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).


This market will resolve to “Yes”  if the Treasury 10-year yield on May 16, 2025 is greater than 4.40% according to the daily values published by the Department of the Treasury. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. 

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the Treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).


This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Treasury 10-year yield on May 23, 2025 is greater than 4.50% according to the daily values published by the Department of the Treasury. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the Treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).

10-year Treasury yield >4.5% next Friday?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Treasury 10-year yield on June 6, 2025 is greater than 4.50% according to the daily values published by the Department of the Treasury. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the Treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Treasury 10-year yield on June 13, 2025 is greater than 4.50% according to the daily values published by the Department of the Treasury. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the Treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Treasury 10-year yield on July 18, 2025 is greater than 4.40% according to the daily values published by the Department of the Treasury. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the Treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Treasury 10-year yield on July 4, 2025 is greater than 4.50% according to the daily values published by the Department of the Treasury. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the Treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Treasury 10-year yield on June 27, 2025 is greater than 4.50% according to the daily values published by the Department of the Treasury. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the Treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Treasury 10-year yield on July 11, 2025 is greater than 4.30% according to the daily values published by the Department of the Treasury. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the Treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Treasury 10-year yield on June 20, 2025 is greater than 4.50% according to the daily values published by the Department of the Treasury. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the Treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Treasury 10-year yield on August 8, 2025 is greater than 4.40% according to the daily values published by the Department of the Treasury. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the Treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Treasury 10-year yield on July 25, 2025 is greater than 4.40% according to the daily values published by the Department of the Treasury. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the Treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Treasury 10-year yield on August 1, 2025 is greater than 4.40% according to the daily values published by the Department of the Treasury. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the Treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Treasury 10-year yield on August 29, 2025 is greater than 4.30% according to the daily values published by the Department of the Treasury. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the Treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Treasury 10-year yield on September 12, 2025 is greater than 4.30% according to the daily values published by the Department of the Treasury. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the Treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Treasury 10-year yield on August 15, 2025 is greater than 4.30% according to the daily values published by the Department of the Treasury. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the Treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Treasury 10-year yield on August 22, 2025 is greater than 4.30% according to the daily values published by the Department of the Treasury. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the Treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. 

After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.

9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

This market will resolve according to the company in the Nasdaq-100 that achieves the highest performance during calendar year 2025.

Performance will be measured as the percentage change in each specified security's price during this market's timeframe, calculated by comparing the closing price for the last official trading day prior to this timeframe (December 31, 2024) to the closing price for the last official trading day within this timeframe (December 31, 2025).

All companies that are constituents of the Nasdaq-100 as of market issuance will be eligible for consideration, regardless of whether they are removed before the market's resolution date. Any company added to the index after market creation will not qualify.

The primary resolution source will be the “Historical Quotes” page for the specified ticker on Nasdaq at: nasdaq.com.

Only closing prices will be used for all calculations; total return measures will not be applied.

If multiple specified companies exhibit exactly the same highest performance, the market will resolve to the company whose ticker appears first in alphabetical order.

If any unspecified company achieves the highest performance during the relevant period, the market will resolve to “Other”.

If either of the relevant trading days are shortened, the official closing price published for that session will be used.

If any relevant day lacks a specified closing price, the last valid historical closing price offered by the resolution source will be used.

Updates to historical prices displayed after resolution will not be considered.

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in 2025?

4.6%
$1,219,293 Vol.
1%

4.8%
$820,100 Vol.
1%
0123456789
%

5.0%
$773,551 Vol.
1%
0123456789
%

5.2%
$1,114,070 Vol.
<1%

5.5%
$235,389 Vol.
<1%
0123456789
%

5.7%
$532,839 Vol.
<1%
0123456789
%

6.0%
$450,386 Vol.
<1%

Market Context

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in 2025?

Rules

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in 2025?

Market Context

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in 2025?

About

Related

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in 2025?

4.6%$1,219,293 Vol.1%buy Yes0.9¢buy No99.4¢

4.8%$820,100 Vol.1%0123456789%buy Yes0.9¢buy No99.4¢

5.0%$773,551 Vol.1%0123456789%buy Yes0.7¢buy No99.5¢

5.2%$1,114,070 Vol.<1%buy Yes0.5¢buy No99.7¢

5.5%$235,389 Vol.<1%0123456789%buy Yes0.3¢buy No99.9¢

5.7%$532,839 Vol.<1%0123456789%buy Yes0.2¢buy No99.9¢

6.0%$450,386 Vol.<1%buy Yes0.2¢buy No99.9¢

Market Context

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in 2025?

Rules

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in 2025?

Market Context

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in 2025?

About

Related

4.6%
$1,219,293 Vol.
1%

4.8%
$820,100 Vol.
1%
0123456789
%

5.0%
$773,551 Vol.
1%
0123456789
%

5.2%
$1,114,070 Vol.
<1%

5.5%
$235,389 Vol.
<1%
0123456789
%

5.7%
$532,839 Vol.
<1%
0123456789
%

6.0%
$450,386 Vol.
<1%