Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 87.5% implied probability against removal of Jones Act domestic shipping requirements by June 30, driven by the absence of legislative momentum for permanent repeal despite a limited 60-day waiver issued March 17, 2026, expiring May 17 amid energy supply disruptions from geopolitical tensions. This temporary measure, targeting specific energy and agricultural shipments to U.S. ports like Hawaii, addressed short-term constraints without altering core mandates for U.S.-built, owned, and crewed vessels, facing pushback from maritime unions and shipbuilders protecting domestic industry jobs and national security interests. With no advancing bills in Congress and entrenched stakeholder opposition, traders see slim odds of broader reform before the deadline, though waiver extension talks could emerge post-May 17.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$50,185 Vol.
$50,185 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$50,185 Vol.
$50,185 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
The Jones Act of 1920 requires that all goods transported by water between U.S. ports be carried by vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Jones Act is repealed, altered, or invalidated, or new legislation becomes law, such that any of the Jones Act domestic shipping restrictions to vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews are fully removed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A removal of any of the listed domestic shipping requirements will count. For example, the removal of the domestic shipping requirements for ships to be built in and flagged to the U.S., without the removal of the requirements for those ships to be owned by U.S. citizens to be manned by U.S. crews, would count.
New legislation includes any congressional legislation or any executive order, proclamation, memorandum, or other legally-binding executive action which effectively removes one of the listed Jones Act requirements.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government. If official information is unavailable or unclear, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 87.5% implied probability against removal of Jones Act domestic shipping requirements by June 30, driven by the absence of legislative momentum for permanent repeal despite a limited 60-day waiver issued March 17, 2026, expiring May 17 amid energy supply disruptions from geopolitical tensions. This temporary measure, targeting specific energy and agricultural shipments to U.S. ports like Hawaii, addressed short-term constraints without altering core mandates for U.S.-built, owned, and crewed vessels, facing pushback from maritime unions and shipbuilders protecting domestic industry jobs and national security interests. With no advancing bills in Congress and entrenched stakeholder opposition, traders see slim odds of broader reform before the deadline, though waiver extension talks could emerge post-May 17.
The Jones Act of 1920 requires that all goods transported by water between U.S. ports be carried by vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Jones Act is repealed, altered, or invalidated, or new legislation becomes law, such that any of the Jones Act domestic shipping restrictions to vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews are fully removed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A removal of any of the listed domestic shipping requirements will count. For example, the removal of the domestic shipping requirements for ships to be built in and flagged to the U.S., without the removal of the requirements for those ships to be owned by U.S. citizens to be manned by U.S. crews, would count.
New legislation includes any congressional legislation or any executive order, proclamation, memorandum, or other legally-binding executive action which effectively removes one of the listed Jones Act requirements.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government. If official information is unavailable or unclear, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Jones Act is repealed, altered, or invalidated, or new legislation becomes law, such that any of the Jones Act domestic shipping restrictions to vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews are fully removed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A removal of any of the listed domestic shipping requirements will count. For example, the removal of the domestic shipping requirements for ships to be built in and flagged to the U.S., without the removal of the requirements for those ships to be owned by U.S. citizens to be manned by U.S. crews, would count.
New legislation includes any congressional legislation or any executive order, proclamation, memorandum, or other legally-binding executive action which effectively removes one of the listed Jones Act requirements.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government. If official information is unavailable or unclear, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Mar 9, 2026, 12:50 PM ET
Volume
$50,185End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 9, 2026, 12:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Jones Act of 1920 requires that all goods transported by water between U.S. ports be carried by vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Jones Act is repealed, altered, or invalidated, or new legislation becomes law, such that any of the Jones Act domestic shipping restrictions to vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews are fully removed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A removal of any of the listed domestic shipping requirements will count. For example, the removal of the domestic shipping requirements for ships to be built in and flagged to the U.S., without the removal of the requirements for those ships to be owned by U.S. citizens to be manned by U.S. crews, would count.
New legislation includes any congressional legislation or any executive order, proclamation, memorandum, or other legally-binding executive action which effectively removes one of the listed Jones Act requirements.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government. If official information is unavailable or unclear, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 87.5% implied probability against removal of Jones Act domestic shipping requirements by June 30, driven by the absence of legislative momentum for permanent repeal despite a limited 60-day waiver issued March 17, 2026, expiring May 17 amid energy supply disruptions from geopolitical tensions. This temporary measure, targeting specific energy and agricultural shipments to U.S. ports like Hawaii, addressed short-term constraints without altering core mandates for U.S.-built, owned, and crewed vessels, facing pushback from maritime unions and shipbuilders protecting domestic industry jobs and national security interests. With no advancing bills in Congress and entrenched stakeholder opposition, traders see slim odds of broader reform before the deadline, though waiver extension talks could emerge post-May 17.
The Jones Act of 1920 requires that all goods transported by water between U.S. ports be carried by vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Jones Act is repealed, altered, or invalidated, or new legislation becomes law, such that any of the Jones Act domestic shipping restrictions to vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews are fully removed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A removal of any of the listed domestic shipping requirements will count. For example, the removal of the domestic shipping requirements for ships to be built in and flagged to the U.S., without the removal of the requirements for those ships to be owned by U.S. citizens to be manned by U.S. crews, would count.
New legislation includes any congressional legislation or any executive order, proclamation, memorandum, or other legally-binding executive action which effectively removes one of the listed Jones Act requirements.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government. If official information is unavailable or unclear, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Jones Act is repealed, altered, or invalidated, or new legislation becomes law, such that any of the Jones Act domestic shipping restrictions to vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews are fully removed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A removal of any of the listed domestic shipping requirements will count. For example, the removal of the domestic shipping requirements for ships to be built in and flagged to the U.S., without the removal of the requirements for those ships to be owned by U.S. citizens to be manned by U.S. crews, would count.
New legislation includes any congressional legislation or any executive order, proclamation, memorandum, or other legally-binding executive action which effectively removes one of the listed Jones Act requirements.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government. If official information is unavailable or unclear, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$50,185End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 9, 2026, 12:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 87.5% implied probability against removal of Jones Act domestic shipping requirements by June 30, driven by the absence of legislative momentum for permanent repeal despite a limited 60-day waiver issued March 17, 2026, expiring May 17 amid energy supply disruptions from geopolitical tensions. This temporary measure, targeting specific energy and agricultural shipments to U.S. ports like Hawaii, addressed short-term constraints without altering core mandates for U.S.-built, owned, and crewed vessels, facing pushback from maritime unions and shipbuilders protecting domestic industry jobs and national security interests. With no advancing bills in Congress and entrenched stakeholder opposition, traders see slim odds of broader reform before the deadline, though waiver extension talks could emerge post-May 17.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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