Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward a 33°C high in Lucknow on March 27 (38.5% implied probability), narrowly ahead of 32°C or below (30.0%), driven by India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts projecting 32–34°C maxima under mostly clear skies and low humidity typical of late March continental heating over the Indo-Gangetic Plain. Recent observations logged 32.8°C on March 26, with model ensembles like GFS and IMD-WRF showing slight diurnal warming from unobstructed solar insolation and light winds. Key differentiators include potential afternoon haze or high clouds suppressing peaks below 33°C versus persistent sunshine enabling 34°C (19.0%); historical March averages hover at 32–34°C with low extremes. IMD's evening update may clarify as surface observations accumulate.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Lucknow on March 27?
Highest temperature in Lucknow on March 27?
33°C 37%
32°C or below 30%
34°C 21%
35°C 11%
$29,960 Vol.
$29,960 Vol.
32°C or below
30%
33°C
37%
34°C
21%
35°C
11%
36°C
4%
37°C
2%
38°C
<1%
39°C
<1%
40°C
<1%
41°C
1%
42°C or higher
<1%
33°C 37%
32°C or below 30%
34°C 21%
35°C 11%
$29,960 Vol.
$29,960 Vol.
32°C or below
30%
33°C
37%
34°C
21%
35°C
11%
36°C
4%
37°C
2%
38°C
<1%
39°C
<1%
40°C
<1%
41°C
1%
42°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 23, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward a 33°C high in Lucknow on March 27 (38.5% implied probability), narrowly ahead of 32°C or below (30.0%), driven by India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts projecting 32–34°C maxima under mostly clear skies and low humidity typical of late March continental heating over the Indo-Gangetic Plain. Recent observations logged 32.8°C on March 26, with model ensembles like GFS and IMD-WRF showing slight diurnal warming from unobstructed solar insolation and light winds. Key differentiators include potential afternoon haze or high clouds suppressing peaks below 33°C versus persistent sunshine enabling 34°C (19.0%); historical March averages hover at 32–34°C with low extremes. IMD's evening update may clarify as surface observations accumulate.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions