Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 74-75°F at virtually 100% implied probability for Houston's highest temperature on March 28, 2026, driven by official National Weather Service observations at William P. Hobby Airport (KHOU) recording a daily maximum of 74°F amid a weak cold frontal passage. This cooling influence followed a record-hot March pattern, with earlier days like March 26 reaching 82°F, but drier northerly flow and increased cloud cover capped highs well below climatological norms of around 76°F. Supporting evidence includes consistent hourly data from NOAA-affiliated stations showing peak warmth mid-afternoon before evening stabilization. Realistic challenges—such as rare post hoc data revisions from quality control audits—are improbable given finalized preliminary reports, solidifying market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Houston on March 28?
Highest temperature in Houston on March 28?
74-75°F 100.0%
67°F or below <1%
68-69°F <1%
70-71°F <1%
$73,874 Vol.
$73,874 Vol.
67°F or below
No
68-69°F
No
70-71°F
No
72-73°F
No
74-75°F
Yes
76-77°F
No
78-79°F
No
80-81°F
No
82-83°F
No
84-85°F
No
86°F or higher
No
74-75°F 100.0%
67°F or below <1%
68-69°F <1%
70-71°F <1%
$73,874 Vol.
$73,874 Vol.
67°F or below
No
68-69°F
No
70-71°F
No
72-73°F
No
74-75°F
Yes
76-77°F
No
78-79°F
No
80-81°F
No
82-83°F
No
84-85°F
No
86°F or higher
No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 24, 2026, 6:04 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 74-75°F at virtually 100% implied probability for Houston's highest temperature on March 28, 2026, driven by official National Weather Service observations at William P. Hobby Airport (KHOU) recording a daily maximum of 74°F amid a weak cold frontal passage. This cooling influence followed a record-hot March pattern, with earlier days like March 26 reaching 82°F, but drier northerly flow and increased cloud cover capped highs well below climatological norms of around 76°F. Supporting evidence includes consistent hourly data from NOAA-affiliated stations showing peak warmth mid-afternoon before evening stabilization. Realistic challenges—such as rare post hoc data revisions from quality control audits—are improbable given finalized preliminary reports, solidifying market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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