Trader consensus favors a Houston high of 78-79°F at 27.5% implied probability, driven by the latest NOAA GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts converging on late-70s peaks amid a building upper-level ridge over Texas, which suppresses cold air intrusions and boosts solar insolation. Differentiating nearby bins like 74-75°F (20.5%) and 76-77°F (19.5%) hinges on model spread over afternoon cloud cover from Gulf moisture and sea-breeze timing, potentially capping peaks 2-4°F lower if onshore flow strengthens; historical March 28 normals sit at 76°F, but urban heat island effects in Houston add 1-2°F. NWS updates tomorrow morning could shift odds as 12z model runs refine boundary layer details.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Houston on March 28?
Highest temperature in Houston on March 28?
78-79°F 33%
72-73°F 21%
74-75°F 21%
76-77°F 20%
67°F or below
5%
68-69°F
3%
70-71°F
11%
72-73°F
21%
74-75°F
21%
76-77°F
20%
78-79°F
28%
80-81°F
10%
82-83°F
8%
84-85°F
11%
86°F or higher
3%
78-79°F 33%
72-73°F 21%
74-75°F 21%
76-77°F 20%
67°F or below
5%
68-69°F
3%
70-71°F
11%
72-73°F
21%
74-75°F
21%
76-77°F
20%
78-79°F
28%
80-81°F
10%
82-83°F
8%
84-85°F
11%
86°F or higher
3%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 24, 2026, 6:04 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors a Houston high of 78-79°F at 27.5% implied probability, driven by the latest NOAA GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts converging on late-70s peaks amid a building upper-level ridge over Texas, which suppresses cold air intrusions and boosts solar insolation. Differentiating nearby bins like 74-75°F (20.5%) and 76-77°F (19.5%) hinges on model spread over afternoon cloud cover from Gulf moisture and sea-breeze timing, potentially capping peaks 2-4°F lower if onshore flow strengthens; historical March 28 normals sit at 76°F, but urban heat island effects in Houston add 1-2°F. NWS updates tomorrow morning could shift odds as 12z model runs refine boundary layer details.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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