Hezbollah has conducted near-daily military operations against Israel since launching rockets on March 2, 2026, triggering Israel's airstrikes, ground invasion of southern Lebanon, and occupation plans up to the Litani River. In the past 48 hours, Hezbollah claimed over 45 attacks, including missile waves intercepted over central Israel, drone swarms on Kiryat Shmona, rocket barrages wounding Israeli soldiers and killing a civilian, and ambushes destroying Merkava tanks. Israel reported over 400 Hezbollah fighters killed and intensified strikes on Beirut suburbs, amid growing domestic opposition. Yemen's Houthis fired their first missile at Israel on March 28, intercepted, signaling potential multi-front escalation; no ceasefire in sight despite U.S.-led talks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHezbollah military action against Israel on...?
Hezbollah military action against Israel on...?
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
April 1
85%
April 2
84%
April 3
72%
April 4
52%
April 5
51%
April 6
71%
April 7
72%
April 8
52%
April 9
53%
April 10
51%
$820 Vol.
April 1
$433 Vol.
85%
April 2
$194 Vol.
84%
April 3
$17 Vol.
72%
April 4
$0 Vol.
52%
April 5
$0 Vol.
51%
April 6
$176 Vol.
71%
April 7
$0 Vol.
72%
April 8
$0 Vol.
52%
April 9
$0 Vol.
53%
April 10
$0 Vol.
51%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah initiates a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Israeli ground territory on the specified date, Israel Standard Time (UTC+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces that physically impact land under Israeli control.
Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Hezbollah has conducted near-daily military operations against Israel since launching rockets on March 2, 2026, triggering Israel's airstrikes, ground invasion of southern Lebanon, and occupation plans up to the Litani River. In the past 48 hours, Hezbollah claimed over 45 attacks, including missile waves intercepted over central Israel, drone swarms on Kiryat Shmona, rocket barrages wounding Israeli soldiers and killing a civilian, and ambushes destroying Merkava tanks. Israel reported over 400 Hezbollah fighters killed and intensified strikes on Beirut suburbs, amid growing domestic opposition. Yemen's Houthis fired their first missile at Israel on March 28, intercepted, signaling potential multi-front escalation; no ceasefire in sight despite U.S.-led talks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah initiates a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Israeli ground territory on the specified date, Israel Standard Time (UTC+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces that physically impact land under Israeli control.
Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces that physically impact land under Israeli control.
Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Market Opened: Mar 24, 2026, 1:04 PM ET
Volume
$820End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 1:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah initiates a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Israeli ground territory on the specified date, Israel Standard Time (UTC+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces that physically impact land under Israeli control.
Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Hezbollah has conducted near-daily military operations against Israel since launching rockets on March 2, 2026, triggering Israel's airstrikes, ground invasion of southern Lebanon, and occupation plans up to the Litani River. In the past 48 hours, Hezbollah claimed over 45 attacks, including missile waves intercepted over central Israel, drone swarms on Kiryat Shmona, rocket barrages wounding Israeli soldiers and killing a civilian, and ambushes destroying Merkava tanks. Israel reported over 400 Hezbollah fighters killed and intensified strikes on Beirut suburbs, amid growing domestic opposition. Yemen's Houthis fired their first missile at Israel on March 28, intercepted, signaling potential multi-front escalation; no ceasefire in sight despite U.S.-led talks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah initiates a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Israeli ground territory on the specified date, Israel Standard Time (UTC+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces that physically impact land under Israeli control.
Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces that physically impact land under Israeli control.
Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$820End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 1:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Hezbollah has conducted near-daily military operations against Israel since launching rockets on March 2, 2026, triggering Israel's airstrikes, ground invasion of southern Lebanon, and occupation plans up to the Litani River. In the past 48 hours, Hezbollah claimed over 45 attacks, including missile waves intercepted over central Israel, drone swarms on Kiryat Shmona, rocket barrages wounding Israeli soldiers and killing a civilian, and ambushes destroying Merkava tanks. Israel reported over 400 Hezbollah fighters killed and intensified strikes on Beirut suburbs, amid growing domestic opposition. Yemen's Houthis fired their first missile at Israel on March 28, intercepted, signaling potential multi-front escalation; no ceasefire in sight despite U.S.-led talks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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