Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly prices a Selic rate decrease at 100% implied probability following the Banco Central do Brasil's Copom announcement on April 29, 2026, cutting the benchmark by 25 basis points to 14.5%—the second consecutive easing after March's reduction from 15% to 14.75%. This reflects softening economic activity, controlled inflation trajectory per recent IPCA-15 data, and Copom's assessment of convergence toward the 3% target despite global risks like Middle East tensions. The unanimous decision reinforces monetary policy normalization amid a cooling labor market and fiscal pressures. Realistic challenges to this positioning are minimal post-announcement, though sharper inflation surprises or geopolitical shocks could prompt a hawkish reassessment at the next June Copom meeting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedDecrease 100.0%
Increase <1%
No Change <1%
$580,136 Vol.
$580,136 Vol.
Increase
No
No Change
No
Decrease
Yes
Decrease 100.0%
Increase <1%
No Change <1%
$580,136 Vol.
$580,136 Vol.
Increase
No
No Change
No
Decrease
Yes
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its April 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for April 27-28, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Jan 30, 2026, 7:03 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its April 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for April 27-28, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly prices a Selic rate decrease at 100% implied probability following the Banco Central do Brasil's Copom announcement on April 29, 2026, cutting the benchmark by 25 basis points to 14.5%—the second consecutive easing after March's reduction from 15% to 14.75%. This reflects softening economic activity, controlled inflation trajectory per recent IPCA-15 data, and Copom's assessment of convergence toward the 3% target despite global risks like Middle East tensions. The unanimous decision reinforces monetary policy normalization amid a cooling labor market and fiscal pressures. Realistic challenges to this positioning are minimal post-announcement, though sharper inflation surprises or geopolitical shocks could prompt a hawkish reassessment at the next June Copom meeting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated

Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions