Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 85% implied probability for a Selic rate decrease at the Banco Central do Brasil's April Copom meeting, following the committee's unanimous 25 basis point cut to 14.75% on March 18—the first easing move after five holds at 15%. This reflects slowing economic activity and disinflation trajectory, with February IPCA inflation at 3.81% year-over-year, though March IPCA-15 rose 0.44% above forecasts amid oil price shocks from Middle East tensions. Copom minutes highlighted upside inflation risks but convergence toward 3% target by late 2027. No-change odds at 15% capture caution on persistent pressures, while hikes at 0.7% signal negligible hawkish reversal risk ahead of the late-April decision.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedDecrease 85%
No Change 15%
Increase <1%
$195,878 Vol.
$195,878 Vol.
Apr 28, 2026
Increase
1%
No Change
15%
Decrease
85%
Decrease 85%
No Change 15%
Increase <1%
$195,878 Vol.
$195,878 Vol.
Apr 28, 2026
Increase
$109,117 Vol.
1%
No Change
$41,524 Vol.
15%
Decrease
$45,237 Vol.
85%
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the Selic rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Brazil's April 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its April 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for April 27-28, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 85% implied probability for a Selic rate decrease at the Banco Central do Brasil's April Copom meeting, following the committee's unanimous 25 basis point cut to 14.75% on March 18—the first easing move after five holds at 15%. This reflects slowing economic activity and disinflation trajectory, with February IPCA inflation at 3.81% year-over-year, though March IPCA-15 rose 0.44% above forecasts amid oil price shocks from Middle East tensions. Copom minutes highlighted upside inflation risks but convergence toward 3% target by late 2027. No-change odds at 15% capture caution on persistent pressures, while hikes at 0.7% signal negligible hawkish reversal risk ahead of the late-April decision.
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the Selic rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Brazil's April 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its April 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for April 27-28, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its April 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for April 27-28, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Jan 30, 2026, 7:03 PM ET
Volume
$195,878End Date
Apr 28, 2026Market Opened
Jan 30, 2026, 7:03 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the Selic rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Brazil's April 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its April 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for April 27-28, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 85% implied probability for a Selic rate decrease at the Banco Central do Brasil's April Copom meeting, following the committee's unanimous 25 basis point cut to 14.75% on March 18—the first easing move after five holds at 15%. This reflects slowing economic activity and disinflation trajectory, with February IPCA inflation at 3.81% year-over-year, though March IPCA-15 rose 0.44% above forecasts amid oil price shocks from Middle East tensions. Copom minutes highlighted upside inflation risks but convergence toward 3% target by late 2027. No-change odds at 15% capture caution on persistent pressures, while hikes at 0.7% signal negligible hawkish reversal risk ahead of the late-April decision.
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the Selic rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Brazil's April 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its April 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for April 27-28, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its April 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for April 27-28, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$195,878End Date
Apr 28, 2026Market Opened
Jan 30, 2026, 7:03 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 85% implied probability for a Selic rate decrease at the Banco Central do Brasil's April Copom meeting, following the committee's unanimous 25 basis point cut to 14.75% on March 18—the first easing move after five holds at 15%. This reflects slowing economic activity and disinflation trajectory, with February IPCA inflation at 3.81% year-over-year, though March IPCA-15 rose 0.44% above forecasts amid oil price shocks from Middle East tensions. Copom minutes highlighted upside inflation risks but convergence toward 3% target by late 2027. No-change odds at 15% capture caution on persistent pressures, while hikes at 0.7% signal negligible hawkish reversal risk ahead of the late-April decision.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedRelated
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