Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Market icon

Assad leaves Syria before 2025?

>99% chance

$1,307,332 Vol.

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Bashar al-Assad has left Syria for any length of time between December 6, 2024, and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

In cases where Assad may have exited Syrian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Syria for this market to resolve to "Yes".

If Assad exits Syrian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".

If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Assad left Syria, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,307,332
End Date
Dec 31, 2024
Created At
Dec 6, 2024, 5:59 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Bashar al-Assad has left Syria for any length of time between December 6, 2024, and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". In cases where Assad may have exited Syrian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Syria for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Assad exits Syrian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes". If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Assad left Syria, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

Beware of external links.

Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Market icon

Assad leaves Syria before 2025?

>99% chance

$1,307,332 Vol.

About

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Bashar al-Assad has left Syria for any length of time between December 6, 2024, and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

In cases where Assad may have exited Syrian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Syria for this market to resolve to "Yes".

If Assad exits Syrian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".

If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Assad left Syria, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,307,332
End Date
Dec 31, 2024
Created At
Dec 6, 2024, 5:59 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Bashar al-Assad has left Syria for any length of time between December 6, 2024, and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". In cases where Assad may have exited Syrian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Syria for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Assad exits Syrian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes". If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Assad left Syria, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

Beware of external links.